China gives in again?????? --- China Conducts Yuan Stress Tests

lite1067

China Conducts Yuan Stress Tests


March 18 (Bloomberg) -- China is conducting yuan stress tests for 12 industries to gauge the possible effect of appreciation on companies, said the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade.

The government should delay the resumption in gains to give exporters more time to recover from the global recession, Zhang Wei, vice chairman of the business group, told a press briefing in Beijing today. The yuan’s 12-month forwards climbed 0.1 percent to 6.6651 per dollar.

Foreign pressure has intensified since Premier Wen Jiabao on March 14 rebuffed calls for an end to the 20-month-old dollar peg, saying the yuan isn’t undervalued. Forward contracts still reflect bets the yuan will strengthen 2.4 percent from the spot rate of 6.8264 in the coming year as the central bank seeks to curb the cost of import prices and rein in inflation.

“It’s only a matter of time,” said Emmanuel Ng, a currency strategist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. in Singapore. “We expect the yuan to rise around the middle of this year.”

China has kept the yuan little changed at around 6.83 per dollar since July 2008 to help exporters survive the global financial crisis. The central bank allowed the currency, also known as the renminbi, to strengthen 21 percent since a peg against the dollar was scrapped in July 2005.

Stress Tests

The stress tests, organized by the business group, covered more than 1,000 companies, large and small, said Zhang. The results of the tests will be announced before April 27, he said. The electronics and machinery industries are the most affected because they had signed contracts to supply products and would post losses if it appreciated, Zhang said.

“This could be a sign they are looking into the option of renminbi appreciation, but whether this will indicate an imminent appreciation is not yet certain,” said Liu Li-Gang, an economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. Liu expects yuan will start rising as early as the second quarter, and it may gain as much as 5 percent by year-end.

Jon Huntsman, U.S. Ambassador to China, said today at Tsinghua University in Beijing that the Obama administration hopes “to see more flexibility” in the way the yuan is managed.

U.S. senators including Charles Schumer and Lindsey Graham revived legislation this week that would require the U.S. to determine if a nation’s currency is misaligned and would make it easier to impose import duties if the currency was deemed to be undervalued.

Political Football

U.S. lawmakers are playing political football by pressing China to boost the value of its currency, which isn’t particularly undervalued, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Chief Economist Jim O’Neill said yesterday at a press conference in London.

The concern in Congress “is sort of understandable but it misses the point,” O’Neill said. It’s “the equivalent of a football” and is part of “the usual hobby of bashing China,” he said.

The one-month forward contract was little changed at 6.8182, reflecting traders bets that “Chinese authorities will probably not yield to foreign pressure” immediately, said OCBC’s Ng.

ranchgirl

Please don't

linksys2006

人民币现在升值就是找死，日本就是前车之鉴，中国和日本相比，唯一可以拿得出手的就是政治比较独立，其他的一概不如日本，但是泡沫只多不少，凭什么日本通缩15年，中国能逃得过去。我虽然讨厌日本，但是有些事情，不服不行。

Seal

这个是美国一相情愿了吧。

牛二买刀

要自由也可以，但总得搞个什么买卖吧。
比如说，OPEC的石油用人民币结算，然后美元在5到10年内可以peg人民币。
老谢说了，都是生意。

dividend_growth

人民币现在升值就是找死，日本就是前车之鉴，中国和日本相比，唯一可以拿得出手的就是政治比较独立，其他的 ...
linksys2006 发表于 2010-3-18 08:11

Not necessarily. Higher Yuan means higher purchasing power for average Chinese, and unlike Japan, China does tremendous internal demands.

Don't ever equate today's China with 1989's Japan, they couldn't be more different.

blackrock

要自由也可以，但总得搞个什么买卖吧。
比如说，OPEC的石油用人民币结算，然后美元在5到10年内可以peg人民 ...
牛二买刀 发表于 2010-3-18 08:49

谢若林？

dividend_growth

RMB up means Chinese can get cheaper commodities.

For a resource intensive economy like China, that's a pretty good benefit imho.

牛二买刀

原材料价格不一定下降.

人刀紧盯美刀，最大的好处是自动享受美刀的铸币税。美刀认为自己应该独享货币控制权，所以对人刀很不忿，欲除之而后快。
人刀脱离美刀， 可能升，可能扁。

如果升值，后果大概如下：
短期，原材料美刀价格不变。原因是原材料价格由美刀的货币发行量及原材料的全球需求决定。这两样中国都没有控制权。
然后，出口成品的美元价格上升（人力成本和汇率上升）。
进口成品人民币价格下降。

出口加工业竞争力下降；面向内需的加工及服务业竞争力也下降。
短期内，公民对进口产品消费能力上升，对出口转内销的产品消费能力上升。对传统自产自消产品消费能力不变。

国内市场无法全部消化出口转内销的产品，这部分企业生产能力下降。从而导致原材料进口减少。但原材料美元价格不变，其人民币价格下降。原因仍然是原材料价格由美刀的货币发行量及原材料的全球需求决定。这两样中国都没有控制权。

因为原材料人民币价格下降，低附加值产业的恢复比高附加值产业的恢复要快。

最后的结果（如果不打贸易战，不对进口货加重税的话），消灭一批国内的幼稚企业（特别是高端企业），用现有的外汇储备买一批外国造的高附加值产品。至于原材料的价格，还是老美说了算。老美再使坏，狂印美元，砸向国际市场，原材料还可以狂涨。到时候TG还没法跟着印。连低端产业都可以玩完.

显然和TG的产业升级目标不符，卡卡。

美国的控制权在于，作为结算货币，美国可以通过美元的发行量来配置生产要素，从而决定世界的产业布局。TG紧盯美元就是为了破这个局。
要人刀浮动可以，美刀让出部分控制权即可。

buctusa

Great Analysis!  

原材料价格不一定下降.

人刀紧盯美刀，最大的好处是自动享受美刀的铸币税。美刀认为自己应该独享货币控制 ...
牛二买刀 发表于 2010-3-18 18:06

丛林法则

好像都测了几回了吧，不测个7，8回是不会升的。

BlueRiver

I think the real problem is the pace of Yuan's arise instead of its arise at all -  RMB has risen over 10% in the last few years, China has made it clear that the pegging RMB to US$  is an emergency policy due to the recession. And eventually it will terminate this pegging, what matters here is the timing.

A gradual increase of Yuan's value is very important for China. This will buy the time for China as it has a few important jobs to do
1. narrow the gap between the rich and the poor. without an affluent middle-class, the rise of Yuan doesn't improve the domestic consumption, the opposite would happen since the massive loss of lower end manufacturing jobs
2. industry groups must be more competitive, the competence should be based on technology, innovation, not lower cost. I wish TCP ( the china price) stood for "The China quality".
3. most importantly, a well-establish financial system which can face up the notorious wall street. The currency exchange, SCO ... are part of the effort. Otherwise China will just become another victim of the predators in Wall street

a fast increase pf Yuan is a recipe for disaster for China, but this is what U.S. is hoping for. The sino-us relation is in high time

牛二买刀

I think the real problem is the pace of Yuan's arise instead of its arise at all -  RMB has risen ov ...
BlueRiver 发表于 2010-3-18 18:55

对。
限制人刀对美刀的变化速度实际上就是在单位时间内盯美刀。这样可以给企业和政策制定者足够的时间来适应美刀的变化。
那为什么金融危机一发生，就有跑回去死盯上了呢？
我的猜测是，美国开始狂印美元，美刀价值和人刀价值曲线的变化率开始拉大，超过国内企业的应变速度。TG就又跑回去紧盯。等到美刀发行量变化率（注意：是变化率，不是变化的绝对值）降下来了，人刀又采取宽松盯人。

不过最终的解决方案是：如果美刀不是结算货币了，就没有其他货币去盯它了。

BlueRiver

回复 13# 牛二买刀


  确实如此. 外汇储备实际也是一种 liability , rmb升的快了, 热钱一跑, 相当于刮 了一层皮. 等工业垮 了, 房价跌了, 股票跌了, RMB再 贬值 , 又 可以进来抄底了. rmb 这种搞法问题不少, 但不盯死得更快, 木有办法

sooners

回复 11# 丛林法则