根据全美散户摸底，未来几年可能是大牛市

Diffusion

只转重要的，几张图和结论。

http://moremoney.blogs.money.cnn ... en-looms-for-bonds/

The contrarian indicator in this case is a monthly asset allocation survey run by the American Association of Individual Investors, a nonprofit focused on investor education. Since November 1987, AAII has been asking its members for snapshots of how their own investments are distributed — how much of their wealth is in stocks (and stock funds), bonds (and bond funds) and cash (or cash equivalents, such as money-market funds).

In that historical record are some fascinating tidbits. Looking back in the archives (accessible with an AAII membership priced at $29 a year), Sonders found that the time at which investors devoted the the highest share of their portfolio to stocks was in early 2000, when AAII respondents had more than three-quarters of their money in stock.


Notice, Sonders said last week, that the current allocation to fixed-income, at 24%, is still very near the category peak hit last summer. "I think this has implications," she said.

Moreover, said Sonders, following the previous two times in recent financial history when bonds outperformed stocks over a two-decade period, the next five years "hugely" favored stocks over bonds.

mtlu2

"Fund managers have been so afraid of missing any stock market rally that they have run down their cash holdings to 3.6% of assets from nearly 6% a year ago. This is the largest decline in 19 years, meaning that equity cash ratios are back to where they were in September 2007, just as the stock market was hitting its peak."

Diffusion

"Fund managers have been so afraid of missing any stock market rally that they have run down their c ...
mtlu2 发表于 2010-3-9 15:06

Yes, I saw this a couple of days ago. I think what you quoted is simply the symptom of what I quoted. You can choose to believe the other way around. YMYD as always.

dara

回复 3# Diffusion


    I seriously doubt the numbers.

I believe it is more than a result the market up and downs.

In 2000, market was so high, so the gu piao value worths a lot more than the value in 2009 march.

Same is true for now. March2010 percentage is high because the market is high, not really more people are chasing.

Diffusion

回复  Diffusion


    March2010 percentage is high because the market is high, not really more people are chasing.
dara 发表于 2010-3-9 15:26

What you said supports my belief that now the stock market is still healthy and have more upside.

And do you truly believe that almost all retailers bought the bottom and sell the top and hold though the cycles? This is the only case when price change being the major drive of changes of asset allocation.

dara

回复 5# Diffusion


    It does not matter they sell it or not.

The total number of shares are the the same, if the price goes up, the total value goes up.

Bencat

sooners

回复 1# Diffusion


   

ranchgirl