03/08/2010 大盘回顾 （Still Overbought）

Cobra

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 3 of 3 are BUY 4 of 6 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model is in BUY mode Short-term 1 of 1 are BUY 6 of 8 are OVERBOUGHT

BULLISH 1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min): Could be Head and Shoulders Bottom, target 119.42. BEARISH 1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min): 15 unfilled gaps. (max was 15) 1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily): 9 unfilled gaps. (max was 9) 2.3.4 Nasdaq Total Volume/NYSE Total Volume: Too high, topped? 2.4.2 NYSE - Issues Advancing: overbought. 2.4.4 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: overbought. T2122 4wk New High/Low Ratio: overbought. See chart here. CONCLUSION Could short after seeing a daily reversal bar (Open > Close), for aggressive traders only.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING VEHICLE: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU ST Model 02/26 L breakeven Reversal Bar 02/26 L *03/04 low *Adjust Stop Loss. NYMO Sell       VIX MA ENV

OTHER ETFs COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided. QQQQ IWM ChiOsc too high. CHINA Big red bar usually means more pullback ahead. EMERGING CANADA *Bearish reversal bar, could pullback. FINANCIALS REITS MATERIALS *Black bar, could pullback. ENERGY Broadening Top in the forming, the breakout direction is unknown. OIL *Bearish reversal bar, could pullback. GOLD DOLLAR Head and Shoulders Bottom. ChiOsc too low. *Hollow red bar, could rebound. BOND

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: RISE TO 03/08 THEN PULLBACK TO 03/16?

 

See 03/05 Market Recap as multiple Gann days are due around 03/08 and 03/16 and the market is pretty overbought so the logic guess is it could pullback from around 03/08 to around 03/16.

 

Overall according to the past II pattern, I believe eventually we’ll see a bigger correction. Just for now except for the Gann theory arguing that 03/08 could be a major top,  I have no other evidences supporting an imminent big correction.

 

SHORT-TERM: OVERBOUGHT

 

短期还是看pullback，除了一堆overbought以外(See table above)，最新的Institutional Buying and Selling Trending (courtesy of stocktiming)的distribution (red) curve又到了非常低的位置，注意看黑线，前几次这么低的时候，都有比较大的correction发生。

 

 

2.0.0 Volatility Index (Daily)，黑棒棒看着有反转的可能，这对大盘不利。顺便说，VIX在过去18天里跌了17天，这个至少从1990起到现在是从来没有过的事情。

 

 

1.0.9 SPX Cycle Watch (60 min)，这个看一下，明天盘中又有两个cycle due，当然是极短期的。

 

 

STOCK SCREENER:  For fun only, I may not actually trade the screeners. Since SPY ST Model is in BUY mode, only LONG candidates are listed. For back test details as well as how to confirm the entry and set stop loss please read HERE. Please make sure you understand the basic risk management HERE.

 

Since the intermediate-term direction is not clear, so no stock screeners from now on until the dust settles.

 

soulvirus

沙发， 谢谢班长

soulvirus

Scorpion

Xie

ppteam

ding!

summer123

windy

thanks

gear

Thanks

PacificLegend

xiaoyaoxl

顶

ahugecat

thanks

sooners

回复 1# Cobra


    thanks

NZX

slcgh

oda

"顺便说，VIX在过去18天里跌了17天，这个至少从1990起到现在是从来没有过的事情。"这么详细的资料都有, 佩服. 谢谢

epsom

Thanks a lot

n748

回复 1# Cobra


    Ding Laoda.

registered

"最新的Institutional Buying and Selling Trending (courtesy of stocktiming)的distribution (red) curve又到了非常低的位置，前几次这么低的时候，都有比较大的correction发生。"

impresario100

javamood