02/11/2010 大盘回顾 （Ascending Triangle or Bear Flag?）

Cobra

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 3 of 3 are SELL 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model is in SELL mode Short-term 1 of 1 are BUY 9 of 9 are NEUTRAL

BULLISH 6.3.2c Major Distribution Day Watch: Bottom is close? 0.0.9 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: Bottom is close? 0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: *Bottom is close according CPC MA10. BEARISH 6.3.0 Major Accumulation/Distribution Days: Another Major Distribution Day ahead? 6.4.A SPY Bottom Shape: Could be another leg down to test the low. CONCLUSION

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING VEHICLE: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU ST Model     *Stopped out short position flat. Reversal Bar       NYMO Sell       VIX MA ENV

OTHER ETFs TREND COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided. QQQQ   Black bar, so a top is close? IWM     CHINA Down Double Top confirmed. EMERGING Down CANADA FINANCIALS Down Could be a confirmed Head and Shoulders Top. REITS   Measured Move, target $41.54. MATERIALS   ENERGY Down Confirmed Double Top. OIL   GOLD Down DOLLAR UP Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $24.28. BOND *Down

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: INITIAL PULLBACK TARGET MET BUT COULD BE MORE

 

No update, see 02/05/2010 Market Recap, Fib 38.2% retracement target was met, but I suspect there’s more. There’s a chance that after the pullback is over, we’ll see a new high followed by a bigger pullback thereafter.

 

SHORT-TERM: EXPECT A SHORT-TERM PULLBACK SOON  

 

在02/09/2010 Market Recap: A Few Bullish Signs中提到大盘有两种可能走法：

1. 先测试上周五的low，然后反弹，这种情况的话，反弹则可能是short-term也可能是intermediate-term。
2. 直接反弹，这样根据6.4.A SPY Bottom Shape，一条腿站不容易站稳原理，market还会跌下来测试上周五的low，因此反弹是short-term的可能性非常大。

从今天的情况看，market选择了方案2，因此我目前维持这是个short-term rebound的看法。今天的After Bell Quick Summary根据1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min)的Ascending Triangle推算反弹的text book target是去fill 01/22 gap。

 

 

我不认为反弹能go this far，理由有二：

 

1. Ascending Triangle的说法有争议，从0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals上看，亦不能排除这两天是形成Bear Flag的情况。

 

 

2. 1.0.8 SPX Cycle Watch (Moon Phases)，月亮说了，明天或下周二是转折点。因此只要明天不跌破今天的low，那可能性比较大，今天或者明天的high是top，下周至少会有几天的pullback。换句话说，就是如果这次月亮还能起作用的话，因为明天SPX涨，就意味着SPX下周会跌，所以Ascending Triangle只有一天时间可以玩，因此明天必须至少涨37点才能达到text book target，这个目前看起来有点难度。

 

 

今天的After Bell Quick Summary提到了统计上讲，明天收红的几率比较大，这里还有个证据，Intraday Cumulative TICK from www.sentimentrader.com too high，至少是说QQQQ没有多少上涨空间了。

 

 

STOCK SCREENER:  For fun only, I may not actually trade the screeners. Since SPY ST Model is in SELL mode, only SHORT candidates are listed. For back test details as well as how to confirm the entry and set stop loss please read HERE. Please make sure you understand the basic risk management HERE.

 

Today’s screener has 1 stock found.

 

IMeMyself

Shafa

hnhy

soulvirus

haha

jiangnanhao

floor

ddr

Alchemist

darren168

Thanks

maimait

1st page click.

gear

Thanks

yaobooyao

我支持Bear Flag 的可能，理由：

昨天的暴涨是EU Greece 的故事，今天又是Job Less claim 的故事，不过两天的上涨交易量比较小，而且日内上涨行情都是很陡很快的走法。明天是长周末的周五，估计应该有不少这两天获利的平仓出场。

不过，SPY 今天突破了最近的下跌通道上沿，这是最近反弹的首次出现的突破。

rosyrosy

1st page

xiaoyaoxl

顶

COS

bendzhao

thank banzhang, always enjoy reading your analysis.

想发

Fan8an

第一页！！！

azure4068

jackyking

dsl