01/21/2010 大盘回顾 （Watch VIX）

Cobra

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 2 of 3 are BUY 3 of 6 are OVERBOUGHT SPY ST Model is in buy mode Short-term 1 of 1 are SELL 5 of 6 are neutral

BULLISH 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly):  H&S Bottom text book target is 1246. 6.2.0a VIX Trading Signals (ENV): *Potential buy signal to be triggered. BEARISH 4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm: Multiple resistances and breadth very overbought. 1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min): 15 unfilled gaps.   01/14 Market Recap: II and AAII survey show extremely high bull to bear ratio. 1.2.0 INDU Leads Market: *INDU breakdown below Dec 31 lows, suspect SPX might follow. CONCLUSION

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.) TRADING VEHICLE: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU ST Model *Stopped out of long position with gain. Reversal Bar     NYMO Sell   VIX MA ENV     *Long if VIX falls into it’s MA Envelope and SPY close > open.

OTHER ETFs COMMENT – *New update, they may not be mentioned in the report. Click links to see more details. IWM & QQQQ 8.2.9a QQQQ – 2009  - 8.2.9h QQQQ – 2002: Seasonality is bearish until the end of January. EMERGING 1.4.0 Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (Daily): Big red bar means more downside ahead. FINANCIALS 3.5.0 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Daily): Could be a Bull Flag in the forming. REITS OIL & ENERGY GOLD 3.3.0 streetTRACKS Gold Trust Shares (GLD Daily): Lower high could be confirmed, looks bearish. DOLLAR 3.1.0 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP Daily): Could be H&S Bottom in the forming. *But a filled black bar formed today which may mean a short-term pullback. BOND 3.0.0 10Y T-Bill Yield: Could be a Bull Flag. So yield could rise while bond should fall.

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: UPTREND INTACT WITH STRONG SUPPORT BELOW

 

关于今天的下跌，暂时不说明问题，After Bell Quick Summary虽然认为没有跌完，不过0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals下面巨大的盘整区不是那么容易就打穿的，因此先定性为short-term pullback。The intermediate-term uptrend is intact。 

 

 

SHORT-TERM: PAY ATTENTION TO A POTENTIAL VIX BUY SIGNAL

 

现在还无法知道介仅仅是个short-term pullback还是the beginning of an intermediate-term downtrend。感觉上，下跌比较猛，volume也特别大，应该凶多吉少，但是俺没有任何证据。2.0.0 Volatility Index (Daily)，介个图非常值得关注，如果还是the old same的话，最迟下周一就该大反弹（不要忘了very very bullish Monday）。而如果到下周一都没有像样的反弹的话，那可能this time is different，until then，暂时还认为介是个short-term pullback。

 

 

6.2.0a VIX Trading Signals (ENV)，看一下，VIX MA ENV buy setup的条件，今天还没有buy signal。俺就是如实报告可能的setup哈，至于是不是buyable dip，I have no idea。

 

 

The back test summary，看一下，not bad。除了上面的VIX要back into MA ENV以外，还要求SPY Close > Open。

 

 

INTERESTING CHARTS: NONE

 

summer123

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atrader

thanks

summer123

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summer123

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summer123

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summer123

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碧海潮生

summer123

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vivian7899

gardener2000

Ding

summer123

thanks a lot

牛熊

First page!

sandera

yaobooyao

Clear and objective.

Meanwhile speculating the bottom is more dangerous than before.

atrader

"The back test summary，看一下，not bad。除了上面的VIX要back into MA ENV or BB以外，还要求Close > Open。"
是不是明天小阳就可以买了？