01/20/2010 大盘回顾（Top Confirmed by CPCE?）

Cobra · 发表于 2010-1-20 09:16 PM

	TREND INDICATOR	MOMENTUM INDICATOR	COMMENT (Click link to see chart)
Long-term	3 of 3 are BUY
Intermediate	3 of 3 are BUY	3 of 6 are OVERBOUGHT	SPY ST Model is in buy mode
Short-term	1 of 1 are SELL	6 of 6 are neutral

BULLISH	4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): H&S Bottom text book target is 1246.
BEARISH	3.0.0 10Y T-Bill Yield: Top in a month? 8.1.0 Normalized NYTV: Topped? 4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm: Multiple resistances and breadth very overbought. 1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min): 15 unfilled gaps. 0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPC and CPCE MA10 are too low. 2.3.4 Nasdaq Total Volume/NYSE Total Volume: Topped? 01/14 Market Recap: II and AAII survey show extremely high bull to bear ratio. 0.0.8 SPX:CPCE: *Top signal confirmed. 01/15 Market Recap: Climax Buying?
CONCLUSION	All the intermediate trend signals are up so no doubt the trend is up. But the bearish signs presented above are enough to raise a caution flag, so it maybe prudent to reduce some long positions.

SPY SETUP	ENTRY DATE	STOP LOSS	INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING VEHICLE: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
ST Model	12/21 L	*01/20 Low	*Adjust stop loss.
Reversal Bar
NYMO Sell

OTHER ETFs	COMMENT – *New update, they may not be mentioned in the report. Click links to see more details.
IWM & QQQQ	8.2.9a QQQQ – 2009 - 8.2.9h QQQQ – 2002: Seasonality is bearish until the end of January.
EMERGING	1.4.0 Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (Daily): *Big red bar means more downside ahead.
FINANCIALS	3.5.0 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Daily): Could be a Bull Flag in the forming.
REITS
OIL & ENERGY
GOLD	3.3.0 streetTRACKS Gold Trust Shares (GLD Daily): *Lower high could be confirmed, looks bearish.
DOLLAR	3.1.0 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP Daily): *Could be H&S Bottom in the forming.
BOND	3.0.0 10Y T-Bill Yield: Could be a Bull Flag. So yield could rise while bond should fall.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: LITTLE CRACK ON SOX AND TRAN BUT OVERALL IS OK

No update, keep eye on 4.0.3 Primary and Secondary Indices Divergence Watch, a little bit non confirmation on SOX and TRAN but not big enough to be a concern.

SHORT-TERM: STILL WITHIN A RANGE BUT CPCE ARGUES FOR A TOP NOW

0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals，还是range bounded，在突破之前，方向不明。不过，up day on decreased volume while down day on much more increased volume，感觉不是很好。

0.0.8 SPX:CPCE，trend line held for 2 days，应该是confirm top了。

1.0.7 SPX Cycle Watch (Daily)，介个看起来也象是cycle top。

此外seasonality讲，明天是一月份最bearish的一天，只有30%的几率收绿。

结论就是也许可能大概more pullback ahead，俺不sure。

INTERESTING CHARTS: NONE

6th-Sense · 发表于 2010-1-20 09:18 PM

本帖最后由 6th-Sense 于 2010-1-20 20:21 编辑

第一次"强盗"哈。。。

短期 SELL 哈。。。115。XX 就是短期天花乱坠咯。。。顶多明天来点绿菜花逗大家玩玩。

高级用户 · 发表于 2010-1-20 09:18 PM

mikeqc · 发表于 2010-1-20 09:18 PM

floor

高级用户 · 发表于 2010-1-20 09:18 PM

sofa??

yaobooyao · 发表于 2010-1-20 09:18 PM

Sofa??????

Not yet.

高级用户 · 发表于 2010-1-20 09:19 PM

abracadabra · 发表于 2010-1-20 09:21 PM

so far

darren168 · 发表于 2010-1-20 09:21 PM

thanks

碧海潮生 · 发表于 2010-1-20 09:21 PM

NZX · 发表于 2010-1-20 09:27 PM

terranmn · 发表于 2010-1-20 09:28 PM

kyshuishou · 发表于 2010-1-20 09:28 PM

JohnHsu · 发表于 2010-1-20 09:28 PM

老大，

讲讲米金吧。What's going on?

Diffusion · 发表于 2010-1-20 09:28 PM

COS · 发表于 2010-1-20 09:32 PM

atrader · 发表于 2010-1-20 09:35 PM

thanks

happyface · 发表于 2010-1-20 09:37 PM

thank u
thank u
thank u

Alchemist · 发表于 2010-1-20 09:38 PM

coexist · 发表于 2010-1-20 09:38 PM

thanks

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[技术分析] 01/20/2010 大盘回顾（Top Confirmed by CPCE?）