01/15/2010 大盘回顾 （In Wait and See Mode）

Cobra

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 3 of 3 are BUY 4 of 6 are OVERBOUGHT SPY ST Model is in buy mode Short-term 1 of 1 are SELL 6 of 6 are neutral

BULLISH 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly):  H&S Bottom text book target is 1246. BEARISH 3.0.0 10Y T-Bill Yield: Top in a month? 8.1.0 Normalized NYTV: Topped? 4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm: Multiple resistances and breadth very overbought. 1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min): 15 unfilled gaps.  0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPC and CPCE MA10 are too low. 2.3.4 Nasdaq Total Volume/NYSE Total Volume: Topped? 01/14 Market Recap: II and AAII survey show extremely high bull to bear ratio. 0.0.8 SPX:CPCE: *Top signal to be confirmed. 01/15 Market Recap: *Climax Buying? CONCLUSION All the intermediate trend signals are up so no doubt the trend is up. But the bearish signs presented above are enough to raise a caution flag, so it maybe prudent to reduce some long positions.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.) TRADING VEHICLE: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU ST Model 12/21 L *01/04 Low *Adjust stop loss. Reversal Bar     NYMO Sell

OTHER ETFs COMMENT – *New update, they may not be mentioned in the report. Click links to see more details. IWM & QQQQ 8.2.9a QQQQ – 2009  - 8.2.9h QQQQ – 2002: Seasonality is bearish until the end of January. 1.3.0 Russell 2000 iShares (IWM Daily): *Bearish Reversal bar, at least one more drop. EMERGING 1.4.2 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM 30 min): *Bullish Falling Wedge? FINANCIALS 3.5.0 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Daily): Could be a Bull Flag in the forming. REITS OIL & ENERGY GOLD DOLLAR 3.1.0 US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP Daily): Hollow red bar plus MA50 support, could rebound. BOND 3.0.0 10Y T-Bill Yield: Could be a Bull Flag. So yield could rise while bond should fall.

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: STALLED AT HEADWIND BUT OVERALL IS HEALTHY

 

4.0.2 NYSE Advance-Decline Issues, 看起来everything is inline。

 

4.0.3 Primary and Secondary Indices Divergence Watch, Semi and Transport a little crack，不过not big enough to be a concern。

 

4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm，重要resistance下弄了个Doji（十字），看起来是受阻，加上那么多overbought breadth，是否会pullback，还需要看下周有没有follow through。

 

 

Climax Buying又spike（下面的红棒棒），可能不好，但也同样需要下周follow through。

 

 

总体来说，uptrend intact，有点隐忧，但是远远不说明问题，一切要看下周如何发展。

 

SHORT-TERM: IN WAIT AND SEE MODE BUT STILL THINK IT IS PRUDENT TO REDUCE LONGS

 

Short-term最大的问题还是0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals的CPC and CPCE MA10太低，介个单从2009年的情况看，是要发生比较大的pullback的。

 

 

下面的图是ISEE Equities Only Index，就是散户buy call的情况，目前的值是偏高，但是从longer history看（红色highlight），choppy ahead for sure，但并不意味着马上就pullback。

 

 

因此，总体来说，虽然short-term并没有必跌的信号，但是trading wise，上面说的put call ratio too bullish的问题迟早都是要修正的，所以现在重仓long不管怎么说都是风险比较高的，因此还是建议减仓。

 

0.0.8 SPX:CPCE，trend line breakout，介是说周五可能是top，当然也要看下周二是否能hold trend line。

 

 

周五的After Bell Quick Summary，根据VIX收盘前急跌的情况猜测周二有反弹的可能，不过1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min)的VIX已经out of BB了(Yes, VIX out of BB setup applies to intraday chart too!)，加上SPY已经有15个unfilled gap，因此周二如果高开的话，多半会补。 

 

 

周二高开，还有个问题，1.0.9 SPX Cycle Watch (60 min)，正好是cycle due time，反而可能是cycle top。

 

 

以上，总结一下，就是周五没有cover的熊熊，既使真的very very bullish Tuesday，也应该有全身而退的机会。

 

INTERESTING CHARTS: NONE

 

xiaofengfeng

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碧海潮生

源济

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赌：周二 $SPX开盘 (1/19/2010)

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赌：$SPX涨跌，周二 1/19/2010

PacificLegend

stockgirl

First page!

rnhoo

first page. good.

jiangnanhao

1st  page!

terranmn

Bencat

flash

1st page

cheyenne

thx a lot.

ranchgirl

老大辛苦，每天处理这么多数据。。。

开小差

thx,ding

X中国陆军

Cool

atrader

thanks

lwjnbtx

Thanks, ding!

surya

xnz

thank you