01/13/2010 大盘回顾 （NATV/NYTV a Little Too High）

Cobra

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT – click HERE for details Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 3 of 3 are BUY 5 of 6 are OVERBOUGHT SPY ST Model is BUY Short-term 1 of 1 are BUY 6 of 6 are neutral

BULLISH The FED’s money printing machine? :-) BEARISH 3.0.0 10Y T-Bill Yield: Top in a month? 8.1.0 Normalized NYTV: Topped? 12/31 Market Recap: II and AAII survey both show extremely low # of bears. 4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm: Multiple resistances and breadth very overbought. 1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min): 15 unfilled gaps.  0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPC and CPCE MA10 are too low. 0.0.9 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: Too extreme, top could be very close. 2.3.4 Nasdaq Total Volume/NYSE Total Volume: *Topped? CONCLUSION Signals presented above are enough to justify a short selling. Shorted on 01/11. Close position at your own will.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE INSTRUCTION STOP LOSS Mechanic trading signals, details are HERE.  Take profit whenever you see appropriate. ST Model 12/21 L 12/31 Low   Reversal Bar       NYMO Sell

ETF WATCH COMMENT – *New update, they may not be mentioned in the report. Click links to see more details. IWM & QQQQ 4.1.2 Russell 2000 iShares (IWM Weekly) : Breakout but STO is too high may pullback soon. 8.2.9a QQQQ – 2009  - 8.2.9h QQQQ – 2002: *Seasonality is bearish until the end of January. EMERGING 1.4.2 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM 30 min): Double Top, target 41.77. FINANCIALS 3.5.1 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF 30 min): *Double Bottom, target 15.35. REITS OIL & ENERGY   GOLD DOLLAR 3.1.0 US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP Daily): *Hollow red bar plus MA50 support, could rebound. BOND 3.0.0 10Y T-Bill Yield: Could be a Bull Flag. So yield could rise while bond should fall.

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT HEADWIND AHEAD

 

No update, watch 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly) for overhead target/resistance and 4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm for overbought breadth signals.

 

SHORT-TERM: ONE MORE TOP SIGNAL AND SEASONALITY IS BEARISH FOR QQQQ UNTIL THE END OF JANUARY

 

CPC and CPCE extremely low以及www.sentimentrader.com too many indicators at bearish extremes的问题并没有改善，今天还增加了一个可能的top信号，2.3.4 Nasdaq Total Volume/NYSE Total Volume，因此还是建议逢高减仓。

 

 

Seasonality，根据www.sentimentrader.com的说法，非常有趣，从2002年起，每年的第8个交易日（就是说从今天起）到一月底的介段时间里，QQQQ就没表现好过。图太多了，就不列出来了，各位自己点击下面的链接看看是不是介样哈。

8.2.9a QQQQ – 2009    
8.2.9b QQQQ – 2008
8.2.9c QQQQ – 2007
8.2.9d QQQQ – 2006
8.2.9e QQQQ – 2005
8.2.9f QQQQ – 2004
8.2.9g QQQQ – 2003
8.2.9h QQQQ – 2002

 

INTERESTING CHARTS: NONE

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Ave

老蛇要传达的精神是, 柿子要拿软的捏，顶不远了，要short就要打qqqq的主意。

philles

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donkeygirl

难道今天看懂啦，哈哈