01/06/2010 大盘回顾 （SPX Target According To Measured Move）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT – Click links to see chart or visit my public chart list. Long-term Up     Intermediate Up Neutral 3.0.0 TNX: Top in a month? 8.1.0 Normalized NYTV: Topped? 12/31 Recap: Climax Buying spiked, could be Topped. 12/31 Recap: II and AAII survey both show extremely low number of bears. Short-term Up Neutral 1.0.2 SPY: 15 unfilled gaps. 01/04 Recap: Too many bearish extremes. 0.0.3 SPX: CPC MA10 is too low. 0.0.6 Nasdaq 100, 0.0.1 Top/Bottom Watch: NADNV/NYDNV is too low. 1.1.0 Nasdaq: NDXA50R is too high.

CONCLUSION & TRADE Signals presented in the short-term comment area are enough to justify a short selling. Waiting for a Bearish Reversal Bar to short.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE INSTRUCTION STOP LOSS Mechanic trading signals, details are HERE.  Take profit whenever you see appropriate. ST Model 12/21 L   Breakeven Reversal Bar     NYMO Sell     VIX ENV

WATCH LIST COMMENT – *New update, they may not be mentioned in the report. Click links to see more details. RUSSELL 2000 4.1.2 Russell 2000 iShares (IWM Weekly) : Bearish reversal bar plus multi-resistances. EMERGING 1.4.1 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM Daily): Breakout, not very convincing though. FINANCIALS 3.5.0 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Daily): Confirmed breakout of a Roof formation. REITS 3.6.0 Real Estate iShares (IYR Daily): On multiple support, could rebound.  OIL & ENERGY 3.4.1 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO 30 min): Could be a Bearish Rising Wedge in the forming.  GOLD DOLLAR 3.1.0 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP Daily): Double hollow red bar, could rebound. BOND

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: NO UPDATE

 

下面的图显示了SPX breakout后的几个可能的target，今天SPX到达了最常见的Fib 61.8%位置（由于stockcharts的限制，Fib tool reverse后数据就不对了，所以只能反过来放了，anyway把38.2看成61.8就行了），因此不排除明天就pullback的可能。再上面的target 1150可能性也很大，见下面的 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly)，有多重阻力。另外，按照Elliot Wave理论，A = C的话，target可能是1159，见4.1.9 SPX Cycle Watch (Weekly)，也是指向1150区域，coincidence？We’ll see。

 

 

SHORT-TERM: RUSSELL 2000 LOOKS WEAK

 

1.3.2 Russell 2000 iShares (IWM 30 min)，有Head and Shoulders Top的可能。

 

 

4.1.2 Russell 2000 iShares (IWM Weekly)，Weekly图看，IWM也面临多重阻力，因此IWM有pullback的可能。

 

 

其他没啥新鲜的，short-term bearish signs很多，具体见上面的表格。今天的After Bell Quick Summary提到的明天可能会pullback的2个理由，不是非常sure，有兴趣可以看看。The bottom line，俺觉得短期pullback的可能性还是比较大的。

 

INTERESTING CHARTS: NONE

 

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赌：$SPX涨跌，周四 1/7/2010

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赌：$SPX涨跌，周四 1/7/2010

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赌：$SPX涨跌，周四 1/7/2010

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