12/31/2009 大盘回顾 （Fewer Bears Stand）

Cobra

S&P 500 TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT – Click links to see chart or visit my public chart list. Long-term Up     Intermediate Up Neutral 3.0.0 TNX: Top in a month? 8.1.0 Normalized NYTV: *Topped? 12/31 Recap: Climax Buying spiked, *could be Topped. 12/31 Recap: II and AAII survey both show extremely low number of bears. Short-term *Down Neutral 0.0.9 CPC/CPCI: Topped? 1.0.2 SPY: *14 unfilled gaps. 12/23 Recap: Too many bearish extremes. 0.0.2 SPY:  *4 bearish reversal bar in a row.

CONCLUSION & TRADE Signals presented in the short-term comment area are enough to justify a short selling. Shorted 12/28 on SPY daily black bar, better entry was on 12/29 when a MACD negative divergence was formed on 1.0.3 SPY 30 min chart.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE INSTRUCTION STOP LOSS Mechanic trading signals, details are HERE.  Take profit whenever you see appropriate. ST Model 12/21 L   Breakeven Reversal Bar 12/21 L    *Stopped out long position on 12/31 with gain. NYMO Sell     VIX ENV

WATCH LIST COMMENT – *New update, they may not be mentioned in the report. Click links to see more details. NASDAQ 100   RUSSELL 2000 4.1.2 Russell 2000 iShares (IWM Weekly) : *Bearish reversal bar plus multi-resistances, price could drop. EMERGING 1.4.1 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM Daily): *Not sure if this is a back test of a broken trend line . FINANCIALS 3.5.0 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Daily): *Could be a bearish Roof pattern in the forming. 4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): *Under long term resistance with MACD sell signal. Generally, the financials don’t look good. REITS   OIL & ENERGY 3.4.0 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO Daily): *Black bar, oil could pullback.  GOLD   DOLLAR 3.1.0 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP Daily): *Could be a Bull Flag.  BOND

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: COULD BE BREAKOUT THEN PULLBACK BUT I SEE LOTS OF WARNINGS

 

周四收盘前的下跌可以看作是Breakout then back test the breakout point，因此是牛是熊还要看下周。

 

 

综合目前俺所有的证据，I issue a warning for a possible intermediate-term trend change。当然，不是说可以short，it’s still far from a confirmed downtrend。

 

最新的II and AAII Survey都显示没有多少熊了。其中II熊是Fewest ever。

 

 

Climax Buying indicator还记得吧？看看下图中历次红棒棒Climax Buying spike后都发生了什么吧。

 

 

8.1.0 Normalized NYTV，大家都习惯了up on decreased volume不说明bearish吧？Well，累积到一定的程度就会引起质变，看看下图中红线的位置吧。

 

 

很多cycle due，目前看起来都指向top。

 

1.0.7 SPX Cycle Watch (Daily)。

 

 

1.0.8 SPX Cycle Watch (Moon Phases)。觉得看月亮superstitious是吧？俺核对了一下月亮的历史，发现还是有一定的可信度的，暂且当个indicator白相（玩）一阵吧。

 

 

4.1.9 SPX Cycle Watch (Weekly)。

 

 

SHORT-TERM: COULD BE SMALL REBOUND FOLLOWED BY MORE PULLBACKS

 

周一，至少早盘会有反弹的机会，理由是1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min) and 1.1.5 PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ 30 min) 的ChiOsc太低了，plus可能大家都还记得的，verli verli buuullliiissshhh Monday。

 

 

反弹之后，俺expect more pullbacks，理由是 0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals，4 bearish reversal bars in a row，多半不会就介么pullback over了。

 

 

其他more pullback理由：米金要涨，油要跌。

 

6.4.5 GLD and UUP Watch，神奇的GLD黑棒棒意味着UUP可能要涨。介个很符合3.1.0 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP Daily)可能形成Bull Flag的看法。

 

 

3.4.0 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO Daily)，黑棒棒，因此油可能要跌，另外，STO也太高了。

 

 

INTERESTING CHARTS:

 

一月的Seasonality from www.sentimentrader.com。

 

 

flyingpig2

老大辛苦

风清扬

tianee

thank u!

seafood

老蛇大盘回顾第一部分的TABLE越做越专业了哈，喜欢！

dfw

Thanks

registered

蛇班长，Happy New Year!

ROOKIE2

Cobra

老蛇大盘回顾第一部分的TABLE越做越专业了哈，喜欢！
seafood 发表于 2010-1-3 00:20

Thanks。确实花了不少心血，难得你注意到了，还是挺高兴的。

slcgh

THANKS LAODA, 是safa吗？

碧海潮生

impresario100

weigoodone01

mocca

thanks

开小差

the table  looks very clear. thx.

Cobra

the table  looks very clear. thx.
开小差 发表于 2010-1-3 01:04

WaveTech

Hope market will drop til 1/14/2010.

trytry

dingdingding

buctusa

Lao Da, what will happen to Hutong? Why you said Hutong might be closed for a while?

skipjack

Thanks Cobra, happy new year, good luck