12/14/2009 大盘回顾 （Very Bullish Seasonality）

Cobra

Summary:

Follow through is needed to confirm the today's breakout.

Very bullish seasonality until new year, but be careful because it seems that everybody are so sure about this easy money.

Still a short-term top could be very close.

	TREND	MOMENTUM	EMOTION	COMMENT - Sample for using the trend table.
Long-term	Up		Disbelieve
Intermediate	Down	Neutral
Short-term	Up	Neutral
SPY SETUP	ENTRY DATE	INSTRUCTION	STOP LOSS	Mechanic trading signals for reference only. Back tested since 2002.
ST Model	12/10 L	*Adjust stop loss	*Breakeven
Reversal Bar	12/10 L	*Adjust stop loss	*Breakeven
NYMO Sell				Stopped out short position flat.
VIX ENV

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: FOLLOW-THROUGH WANTED

 

After Bell Quick Summary提到了今天是首次close above盘了一个月的range，下面的close only的图可以很清楚地看到breakout，不过再下面的candlestick图则不是很convincing，因此需要看明天是否有follow though。

 

7.1.1 Primary and Secondary Indices Divergence Watch，secondary indices有大幅改善，TRAN breakout in convincing manner，Russell 2000则confirm bullish 1-2-3 formation。

 

2.4.4 NYSE McClellan Oscillator，breadth也有改善，见最右边的绿线，NYMO higher high，NYHGH也higher high，和还没有higher high的NYA形成了positive divergence。

 

所以总得来说牛牛的姿态有改善。并且从今天开始到新年的seasonality very very bullish。

 

1. The Most Wonderful Tiiiiime Of The Yearrrrrrr from Quantifiable Edges。

2. The December options expiration week has been positive 24 out of 27 years since the inception of S&P 500 futures, according to www.sentimentrader.com。

3. Santa Claus Rally: Normally occurs during the last five trading days of the year and the first two in January.

4. January Effect: Refers to the tendency for small cap stocks to outperform large cap stocks during January. However, that most of the January Effect now takes place during the last half of December and sometimes even starts during November. 介个上面提到chart 7.1.1的时候大家应该有体会了，Russell 2000和TRAN（主要是飞机）outperform可能跟介个有关。 

 

总结一下，就是看起来后面4周（包括新年）very bullish，几乎是sure thing了，是吧？俺不是conspiracy的fan，不过看起来是sure thing的easy money，大家还是谨慎点好。看看下面的Option Speculation Index就知道了，extremely bullish，介就是说，想着介个sure thing easy money的人不只是在座的各位。

 

SHORT-TERM: STILL A TOP COULD BE VERY CLOSE

 

今天的大涨，并没有完全出乎俺的意料，周五的After Bell Quick Summary里也提到了可能测试the previous high的可能性，因此并没有改变俺看short-term pullback的看法。主要的依据还是QQQQ的Bearish Reversal Bar，见下图，并不一定Bearish Reversal Bar以后就马上跌的，所以pullback还是有可能的。

 

今天的大涨另一个比较突出的地方就是www.sentimentrader.com的很多short-term indicator都bullish exterme了，下面的图可以看到当sentimentrader的indicator有30%左右bullish extreme的时候，SPX此后went nowhere，所以这也是俺觉得还有可能pullback的主要理由。 

 

INTERESTING CHARTS:

 

3.4.1 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO Daily)，黑棒棒，plus ChiOsc too low，因此油还是有反弹的可能的。

 

风信子

抢了沙发再看！

happyface

板凳

azure4068

xiexie

usamonkey

jayceezhong

easy money...?????

hannah

First page?

farshine

lwjnbtx

ding, first page!

atrader

thanks

surya

长叶草

谢谢

xiaoxin@ca

thx

mrsli

thanks

temujin

thanks

开小差

thx, ding

bucks

阳光明媚

Diffusion

yaobooyao

是啊，今天盘中看一些蓝筹股的Level II， Buy / Sell 势均力敌，价钱根本打不下去，今天虽然总交易量没有放大，但是交易却十分活跃。