12/04/2009 大盘回顾 （Secondary Indices Strengthening）

Cobra

Summary:

Secondary indices are strengthening so not sure about intermediate-term top anymore. However still expects a short-term top.

	TREND	MOMENTUM	EMOTION	COMMENT - Sample for using the trend table.
Long-term	Up		Disbelieve
Intermediate	Down	Neutral
Short-term	Up	Neutral
SPY SETUP	ENTRY DATE	INSTRUCTION	STOP LOSS	Mechanic trading signals for reference only. Back tested since 2002.
ST Model				*Stopped out of long position with gain.
Reversal Bar	11/30 L		Breakeven
NYMO Sell	12/04 S	*Short intraday	0.8xATR(10)	Use 2% for SPY.
VIX ENV

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: MIXED SIGNALS

 

7.1.1 Primay and Secondary Indices Divergence Watch，SOX，TRAN and Russell 2000都有outperform的趋势，因此看中期top的理由不如以前充分了，remain in wait and see mode先。

 

7.1.2 NYSE Advance-Decline Issues，由于Russell 2000的outperform，可以看到介个图的NYAD不再有negative divergence了，也是重要的改善。

 

当然，不是说中期没有warning。上面的7.1.2依然不少warning sign。此外，Investor's Intelligence Sentiment Survey看熊的太少，COT Report smart money看熊。不过介些都是warning，take awhile before the market actually tops.

 

 

下周主要的观察点，是dollar，如果周五UUP的volume surge不是one day event的话，那应该对牛牛不利。We'll see，特别是注意FXE（欧元）是否会破位。

 

SHORT-TERM: VERY CLOSE TO A TOP

 

Short-term维持very close to a top的看法。理由是下面三个图，准确率都是相当高的。

 

自三月份以来的reversal day基本准确。

 

0.0.4 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch，CPC and CPCI too low通常是top。

 

1.1.3 QQQQ Short-term Trading Signals，又是黑棒棒。

 

INTERESTING CHARTS: NONE

 

LadyLucy

vivian7899

vivian7899

vivian7899

vivian7899

vivian7899

vivian7899

再占 一个

trytry

thanks thanks thanks

busywind

DING

源济

PacificLegend

thanks

stockgirl

first page!

ROOKIE2

ranchgirl

Great information, but a little overwhelming to me.

我是谁

happyface

thanks, have a nice weekend.

dommy

ding

Braveheart

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