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发表于 2009-11-24 06:41 PM
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本帖最后由 90ufo 于 2009-11-24 18:54 编辑
S&P Mark Arbeter updates on Nov 09
We still think crude oil has the potential to get up near the $90/barrel region before a pullback or correction sets in. However, we are getting concerned about crude oil prices because commercial hedgers (smart money) have one of their largest short positions and large speculators (dumb money) have one of their largest long positions in about the last 1-1/2 years. (this is Nov09 update, I don't know whether the positions have been unwound or not)
This, in our view, raises the possiblity of at least a decent-sized pullback. If crude is unable to extend its rally roward the $90/barrel region, which would be a 50% retracement of the bear market, we think the $75/barrel is the critical level. This area represents the breakout area for crude oil, and if it gives away, the bullish breakout will have failed, setting the stage for furthur damage in prices. |
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