11/19/2009 大盘回顾 （Bullish Sentiment）

Cobra

Summary:

Sentiment is a little too bullish so don't be too bullish.

	TREND	MOMENTUM	EMOTION	COMMENT - Sample for using the trend table.
Long-term	Up		Disbelieve
Intermediate	Down	Neutral
Short-term	*Down	Neutral
SPY SETUP	ENTRY DATE	INSTRUCTION	STOP LOSS	Mechanic trading signals for reference only. Back tested since 2002.
ST Model	11/17 L	*Adjust Stop Loss	*11/19 Low
Reversal Bar
NYMO Sell		*Sell short if Open > Close tomorrow
VIX ENV
Patterns ect.

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT CONSOLIDATION THEN PULLBACK

 

今天的下跌也许不说明什么，明天由于是周五，又是OE，可能不会有follow-through，不过，从sentiment survey以及Rydex fund traders的情况看，散户比较bullish，因此既使明天大涨，大家也不要太bullish。俺维持consolidation then pullback的forecast。

 

Investor's Intelligence Sentiment Survey。

 

AAII。

 

Rydex买牛fund的和买熊fund的Ratio。

 

 

注意几个图，明天。

 

1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily)，牛牛的希望是SOX从明天起大涨特涨，否则COMPQ和SOX是negative divergence的可能性很大，介意味着比较重要的顶部。

 

2.8.0 SPX:CPCE，breakout trend line，明天如果hold，那至少说明介是个short-term top。

 

6.4.0 SPX and NYMO Divergence Watch，也是个top信号。此外，NYMO Sell setup，明天要是Open > Close，则confirm。介个setup的winning rate是65%，gain/loss ratio是5.2，相当不错。

 

SHORT-TERM: NO UPDATE

 

INTERESTING CHARTS: NONE

 

brcm

...........这年头扒张蛇皮真不容易呀.........................

impresario100

happyface

板凳

gear

Thanks

final_fantasy

final_fantasy

:lol

weigoodone01

rosyrosy

1at page yeah!

2001ht09

3ks

hnhy

牛熊

First page!

阿斗

yeah, wait for one week's pullback then buy dip. Holiday discount

epsom

Thanks a lot and click

jja

DING!

atrader

thanks

soulvirus

oldpigwang

V tomorrow.

catbaby

牛熊