准备长期持仓的朋友最好等明天再决定。

dzyx

Q3 GDP的构成并不理想。而且Revenue的projection不好。

trueself

thanks

dara

cash for bunker alone may contribute 1%.

stonehorse

ut1984

thx facai

ruoshui

jannychai

ding

Alchemist

soulvirus

all numbers are fake anyway

ubcece

ding ding ding

flyingdust

好就是好不好就是不好，别想得太多。要说成份的话没有比中国的更有水分的了，so what?想得太多。

wxp

This contributions to change in GDP doesn't look bad to me:
- huge increase in both export & inport, (compared to shrinkage in both export and input in Q2),
- nodurable and durable goods and service all see increases, the durable goods had the largest increase, still much better than Q2, which had decrease in all three
- Q2 had large decrease in domestic investiment, Q3 this becomes much improved!
- Government spending had dropped significantly compared to Q2, indicating this is not just due to stimulus, the whole economy is improving.

ranchgirl

Thanks!

BlueRiver

我觉得可以稍微乐观一些 。

的确很多one-off的成分， 但是 stimulus package 只 花掉了一小部分。 真正的效果可能在下两个Q看出来。 买房子的朋友会发现贷款比 6个月以前更加严格， 而且business loan也控制得很严。 银行的 balance sheet ， 放而让人觉得放心了。 不过 commercial mortgage, 问题非常严重， 如果 fed 不停的买， 应该不至于出现崩溃。 MBS 现在买了大约0.8T, 上周又 加大了力度。

从一些领先指标，  BDI, WLI, libor都在好转。 真正的问题， 在于赤字和 美元的前途。 不知道 lz有何高见

北京哥哥

等明天？weakhands可能就全给甩出去了。。。。

dzyx

Today, we have an over-sold rally plus GDP announcement (expected to be good), two things came together. I don’t want to bet on the situation like this. I am not a short term player.

Q3 GDP is stronger than expectation and is for sure most of things would look better than Q2. I would actually look ahead to Q4 and Q1-10.

WLI was actually down last week.

dzyx

等明天？weakhands可能就全给甩出去了。。。。

I don't understand. Can you explain?

Diver

BlueRiver

17# dzyx

he means the weak hands ( little bulls or pigs ) are shaken out yesterday as MMs don't want the bus to be too crowded

if WLI is down, that could be a warning sign ...

2001ht09

thanks