The good earnings of INTC, AAPL, AMZN etc

AGA7d

Just my impression.

INTC: strong results, beat estimate nicely; still revenue lower than last year; Not sure on the cause of upside - inventory replenishment or higher sell through? Could be both. Almost straight down after ER, seems the market is not optimistic in its 4Q estimate.

AAPL: Blow-out earnings due to iphone and Mac sales. ipod sales is slightly off. So it is taking market share from others - RIMM is the most vulnerable here. MOT/NOK are not heavy in smartphone, so they are not direct losers. But the two missed the market trend, still losers. Mac shipments are still fraction of PC, so there is still growth (also thanks to the dud Vista). With much higher margin than PCs, Mac can still bring more earnings with only slight increase in sales. ipod is not that important any more.

GOOG: Biggest ad guy is still growing, taking ad biz from traditional medias like newspaper, magazine, radio and TV. It is also winning the new $ from small biz. The total ad dollar may have actually slided.

MSFT: Recovered some from the business spending, tighter cost control also contributed the good earnings. But going forward, it really needs a good showing of Windows 7. Whether Win7 will bring an active upgrade cycle is still in doubt - I see it will mostly comes with pre-installation. It is very unlikely for companies to buy licenses en-mass to upgrade XP since XP is still perfectly usable. Also, there won't be a big wave in upgrading existing PC since the benefits are minor.

AMZN: Great company doing almost everything right; A retailer and a market-place taking market share from others, also benefit from the trend of growing online retail sales. But the valuation is quite high. Remember HD was at 70 during its growth period, but it never touched it again once the frenzy faded. Obviously AMZN is better run than HD, but the consumer trend is negative.

YHOO: I don't see a lot positives in its report. Better ER mostly comes from cost cut and one time item. The ad sales just so-so. To me it is a marginal player with little room for error.

Overall, these big guys executed quite well, AAPL/AMZN also hit new highs - but does it mean the overall economy is coming back? Not quite. These companies are not good indicators since they are the bright spots (not YHOO). So far, it is only a slight recovery from the deep turmoil as shown by the GDP. For the economy to continue the track, new stimulus must be in place next year.

stringzero

ding

kyshuishou

amzn空了30股亏了四百多，5555555

牛二买刀

amzn空了30股亏了四百多，5555555
kyshuishou 发表于 2009-10-24 17:16

AMZN的庄对付空头是有经验的。
网络泡沫时就不说了。2007年4月的那次季报，就对空头进行了血腥屠杀，据称当天有四五个做空AMZN的bear fund直接bankrupt。众多散熊暴尸于野，流血千里。老空头没戴钢盔的话，一般都不碰AMZN的。

pqu

3# kyshuishou

做空不用空 ER 吧。。。。

ChuChu888

牛熊

silverado

yes, remember last time, slaughter house

2001ht09

thanks

acura