10 月 vs 9 月

jeff110

Groundhog Day: September vs October (转之 BESPOKE)

Sometimes we feel like Bill Murray's character in the movie Groundhog Day, where he relives the same day over and over again.  If you have been watching the market recently and also keep finding yourself getting a feeling of Deja Vu, you're not alone.  The S&P 500's performance in October has nearly been an exact replica of most of September.  The chart below highlights the intraday trading of the S&P 500 from Spetember 2nd to September 30th (left axis), and compares it to the intraday trading from October 2nd through the 21st (right axis).  Although it began from a higher price, the S&P 500 has followed the September blueprint nearly tick for tick!

From the low of the month, both rallies lasted thirteeen trading days.  In September, the S&P 500 rallied by 8.8%, and in October the rally was 7.9%.  Then both rallies ended on the 14th day of the month, when the S&P 500 hit a new high for the year only to sell off and close at its lows for the day.  If (big if) October continues to follow the September script, this implies that equities would continue to trade sideways to lower for the rest of the month.

S&P 500 Intraday Sept vs Oct

mocca

1# jeff110

Nice overlap chart!

Positive_Theta

Nice discovery!

stringzero

Ding

wnd4

ding

epsom

Thanks