股价的上升和消费的低迷

dzyx

股价的上升和消费的低迷，一直为看熊的人士所诟病。消费的低迷除了普罗大众捏紧荷包之外，其中一个更大的原因是因为有钱人这次损失惨重。听起来很不公平，但事实确实如此，10%的有钱人占了消费的48%，随着股市、经济的改善，消费已经有所抬头。低迷的情况将逐步改善，股价和消费之间的GAP开始变小。股市总会有回调，但经济改善的步伐不会因此而受影响。

一句话，Buy Dip!

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Wealthy U.S. Shoppers Boost Spending 29%, Survey Says
By Cotten Timberlake

Oct. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Spending in the U.S. on luxury goods and services spurted 29 percent in the third quarter from the previous three months, as consumers with the highest incomes unleashed pent-up demand, according to Unity Marketing.

Spending among 1,067 consumers with average annual income of $228,800 rose to $18,826 each in the three months ended in September from $14,554 a quarter earlier, the Stevens, Pennsylvania-based luxury-market research firm said today. Shoppers cut spending by 3.2 percent in the second quarter and spent $13,429 in the third quarter of 2008.

The increase was driven by consumers with the highest income levels, starting at $250,000 a year, said Pam Danziger, Unity’s Marketing’s president. Spending was strongest in the home, travel and dining segments, she said. The wealthy curbed purchasing earlier this year because of Wall Street job cuts, lower home values and volatile financial markets.

“No question that this quarter’s spending increase is good news for luxury marketers,” Danziger said in a telephone interview today. “Many affluent consumers returned after sitting on the sidelines for a year. However, the richest are few in number, 2.5 million households, so competition will be fierce to win their attention.”

MasterCard Report

U.S. luxury sales rose 3.4 percent to $891 million in September from a year earlier, the first such gain since August 2008, according to figures provided today by credit-card company MasterCard in its SpendingPulse report. Last month, those sales fell 13 percent from the previous year.

The luxury category covers apparel, leather goods and department-store sales at the highest 10 percent of prices. SpendingPulse measures retail sales across all payment forms, including cash and checks.

United Marketing said purchases increased in all but three of the 22 product and service categories it tracks.

The highest-income group spent an average of $43,111 in the latest quarter and the lowest-income group tracked, with earnings of $100,000 to $149,999, spent $10,423. The three categories that didn’t gain were fashion accessories, fashion apparel and art, Danziger said.

Gains in confidence among luxury consumers, meanwhile, slowed, Unity Marketing said.

The researcher’s luxury confidence index rose 1.6 points to 75.9, after jumping 18.6 points to 74.3 in the previous quarter. That index peaked at 113.2 at the end of March 2006. Its low was 40.3 in September 2008. It started at 100 in January 2004.

The findings were based on a survey conducted among adults aged 24 to 70 with income of at least $100,000 from Oct. 2 to Oct. 7. Unity Marketing does not calculate a margin of error. It plans to publish the survey results Oct. 19.

To contact the reporter on this story: Cotten Timberlake in Washington at [email protected]
Last Updated: October 16, 2009 17:31 EDT

happylux

怎么看重要大盘股已经接近历史最高价位？股指继续升高，这些股价往那里升？

dzyx

这么大的文章留给你们老前辈做了。我这个新股民只能瞎蒙。

我实在不知道它们短期如何走。呵呵。

epsom

Thanks

AGA7d

So the lux sector may get a boost, not so surprising though. They were the hardest-hit. But for the broad economy, you need Joe and middle class to start to feel better and spend. That is not in the picture yet.

For this Xmas season, Howard Davidowitz said 1% down in total sales. Some bullish estimates range from 0.3% increase to 1% increase. Given the dismal numbers of last Xmas, 1% increase is actually not as rosy as it appears.

Going forward, the retail sales won't brighten anytime soon as more and more people fall out of the unemployment benefits. That does necessary mean the stocks of retailers will suffer - the survivors get a bigger pie and may have a better sales comp. Wal-Mart is cheap at current price - we may see 60 for next year.

BlueRiver

good point. 个人消费占GDP的60 - 70%, 但 luxury goods 的 margin 要远远高于walt-mart 之类的retailer .

老大要经常来指导工作

dzyx

The Joe and middle class are also important too. They account for another 50% of consumption. But in the short run, the improvement from them would be slow. Their consumption ability has been badly damaged by job loss, uncertainty on the current job, saving more and over pessimism.

The wealthiers, though also badly hurt, are not that devastated. They have the ability to spend more. The top 20% (Correction: I mis-typed earlier as 10%) are used to account for appr. 40% of the consumption. This figure has gone up to 48% on the later number.

dzyx

" good point. 个人消费占GDP的60 - 70%, 但 luxury goods 的 margin 要远远高于walt-mart 之类的retailer .

老大要经常来指导工作"

I am a 新股民.