看看3月份以来$SPX的12个Failed Selling Indicator后都发生什么了(ZT)

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With today’s break to new highs both in the Dow and the S&P 500, I thought it would be interesting to take a look at the 12 most recently “failed” or “busted” sell signals in the S&P 500 to see if we can note a pattern.

Reference back to my prior post on “Recent Failed Short-Sale Signals and Short Squeezes in the SPY” and “If History Repeats, Will it Mean New High for SP500?” (answer “yes!”) for more perspective.



These will be simple sell signals that the majority or ‘public’ will see and this is meant to be an interesting comparison.

First, let’s list the basic sell signals starting with the July lows.

1.  Failed Head and Shoulders pattern (was even discussed on CNBC)
2.  Doji candle at upper Bollinger Band at  prior resistance at the 960 level
3.  Two dojis at the upper Bollinger Band
4.  Doji and bearish candle
5.  Bearish break and close beneath the 20 day EMA
6.  Doji outside upper Bollinger Band
7.  “Tri-Star” doji outside upper Bollinger Band
8.  Large Bearish Bar and close under lower Bollinger Band
9.  Doji at upper Bollinger Band
10.  Doji at upper Bollinger Band
11.  Bearish Engulfing Candle at upper Bollinger Band
12.  Doji at upper Bollinger Band

Each of these signals was a basic “exit long” and “sell short” signal using classic/standard charting.

Each of these signals failed, and in most cases, resulted in a strong “short squeeze” rally as stop-losses (from the sellers) were triggered (buy to cover) which mixed with new buyers to create the “positive feedback” needed to propel the market higher.

I’m  reminded of one of my favorite quotes from Mark Douglas in Trading in the Zone which states “Anything can happen in the market” and “Each moment in the market is unique.”

The main idea is to trade and learn from your experiences in the market and make changes accordingly.  If you are using a particular strategy that works well but suddenly stops working, step back and see if you can figure out why that strategy has stopped working.

* Does it have something to do with the market itself?
* Might the market structure or environment have changed?
* Is it something personal (emotions) that is causing you to employ the strategy improperly?

Sometimes you see something happen so much (or a particular signal fail so many times in a row) that you realize it becomes more profitable to “fade” that signal (or trade against it).  In everything we do, there is information to be learned.

This continuation of busted sell signals will not continue indefinitely, but for now, it appears to be the new rules of the game for as long as buyers continue to have the upper hand.

Remember, from each busted sell signal comes opportunity; from each loss, there is a lesson.

Take time to pause and reflect on the current market, opportunities you are seeing, and your ability to maximize those opportunities to the best of your ability and trading strategy.

Diffusion