TOPPING soon

dara

If you chase high now,  you will get trapped.
If you bought at a very low point, then I guess you can continue hold.

I do not fully agree with this guy because US is No.1 in the world, and outside money come in.  But US has one more problem than Japan: debt.

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On the other hand, Dow 10,000 signals the start of another downturn for some. Windham Financial's Mendelsohn is in a camp that observes parallels between the position U.S. markets are in and what Japan's Nikkei 225 endured during a miserable 10-year stretch when it dropped from a high of nearly 39,000 to roughly 15,000.

"We're in a Japan scenario," Mendelsohn said. "I think our economy is basically going to be like Japan's. We acted very similarly. We brought our interest rates down to zero. We made sure our banks did not fail. We didn't clean up the problem with the bad loans. We swept it under the rug. Why should we be expecting a different outcome?"

Those who share Mendelsohn's view argue that the market simply cannot go back to trading as it did in the past. For them, it is very possible the next decade could resemble Japan's 10-year struggle, with the Dow stuck between 6000 and 10,000

For a short-term trader, this has worked. But for long-term people, this isn't over, and they may be better off on the sidelines," Mendelsohn said. "Getting to 10,000 is not an exciting point for me. It's the kiss of death."

soulvirus

pls do NOT underestimate O8. he is already sick and getting worse and worse

牛二买刀

美国和日本最大的区别是：
美国是主权国家，日本不是。
美国其实有点：too big to fail.

当然，美国一旦倒下，下场不会比前苏联好。大家会争其肉而食之。

dara

美国和日本最大的区别是：
美国是主权国家，日本不是。
美国其实有点：too big to fail.
牛二买刀 发表于 2009-10-14 17:24

Y

true.
If US is the same as Jap, DOW would be never go above 7000.
Did you see Nikk 20000+ after 2000?

Finance is 美国的命根子

ppteam

多仓的观点是不见棺材不掉泪。

dara

pls do NOT underestimate O8. he is already sick and getting worse and worse
soulvirus 发表于 2009-10-14 17:22

WS bankers were his money machine.

2001ht09

buctusa

Buddy, I support you!

polopolo

If the outside money is coming in, then US dollar should have been going through the roof, like late 1990s.

It is not happening.

What we have here is merely a reflection that

1. Stock dropped too much in March
2. Some leftover money that has not flee U.S.

sds

TOPPING不可怕，只要跑的快就行，象这么大的RALLY，TOPPING的时候会有种种迹象，而且也不会一下就跌死，我们要争取比MM跑的快。

soulvirus

偶今天看报纸，说偶们这里本科毕业生的就业率下降， 研究生上升， 来招人的公司大幅减少。 学校里关门的实验室越来越多。北卡的消费税已经上调， 工资税准备上调。衰退根本就没有什么好转。只有老中拼命买房， 好像错过了就再也没有了。

刚才偶还对别人说， 如果经济真的好转了， 那么政府的债卷应该上调rating。 那么abk mbi要涨10倍。 可是abk mbi目前大幅write down， 直奔bk. 说明经济根本没好转。

现在的情况就像一个妹妹脱光了， 俩只手挡得了胸部挡不住下面， 挡了下面就露奶哈。 到处都在走光。。。

但是市场照样上升，没得办法哈。不long不行。

WS bankers were his money machine.
dara 发表于 2009-10-14 17:33

Diver

when you run away, please remind us.

TOPPING不可怕，只要跑的快就行，象这么大的RALLY，TOPPING的时候会有种种迹象，而且也不会一下就跌死，我们要争取比MM跑的快。
sds 发表于 2009-10-14 17:56

2001ht09

偶今天看报纸，说偶们这里本科毕业生的就业率下降， 研究生上升， 来招人的公司大幅减少。 学校里关门的实验室越来越多。北卡的消费税已经上调， 工资税准备上调。衰退根本就没有什么好转。只有老中拼命买房， 好像错 ...
soulvirus 发表于 2009-10-14 18:00

jja

harley

4# dara

Nikkei started its drop back in 1990 ...

Diver

before SPX 1121, no more calling top...

stringzero

Ding

yaobooyao

偶今天看报纸，说偶们这里本科毕业生的就业率下降， 研究生上升， 来招人的公司大幅减少。 学校里关门的实验室越来越多。北卡的消费税已经上调， 工资税准备上调。衰退根本就没有什么好转。只有老中拼命买房， 好像错 ...
soulvirus 发表于 2009-10-14 18:00

I love the naked MM thing,  it's really cool you used it for the market scenario.

牛二买刀

偶今天看报纸，说偶们这里本科毕业生的就业率下降， 研究生上升， 来招人的公司大幅减少。 学校里关门的实验室越来越多。北卡的消费税已经上调， 工资税准备上调。衰退根本就没有什么好转。只有老中拼命买房， 好像错 ...
soulvirus 发表于 2009-10-14 18:00

股市和经济有时候是背离的， 但背离的时间应该不会太长，就6个月吧。

yaobooyao

股市和经济有时候是背离的， 但背离的时间应该不会太长，就6个月吧。
牛二买刀 发表于 2009-10-14 20:58

问题是， 到时候谁向谁靠拢呢？