Lost jobs will not return until 2012

SpringMountain

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The 7.2 million jobs lost in the recession won't return until 2012 or beyond, according to a new survey of top business economists released Monday.

Economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics said any recovery is likely to be so gradual that these jobs won't return to the labor market for three years.

Less than 8% of the 44 economists surveyed expect to regain the lost jobs before 2012. About 54% expect to see the loss fully reversed by 2012. At the same time, 33% project it will take until 2013 to recover the lost jobs. Five percent say it will take even longer.

Real GDP is expected to advance at a 2.9% pace over the second half of this year and at a moderate 3% pace next year, the survey concluded.

The NABE panel forecast the unemployment rate to rise to 10% in the first quarter of next year and only slip to 9.5% by the end of 2010.

The economists think the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates at record low levels until late next spring, and then will push rates up to 1.0% by the end of the year.

Inflation will remain low, the economists said. Substantial labor market slack will keep wages from rising.

The core index of personal consumption expenditures, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, to forecast to tick up to 1.5% in 2010 from the 1.4% rate expected this year.

The forecasters think it will take some time for financial markets to return to normal. Almost a third of the panel members believe this will not occur until some time between 2011 and 2013.

The housing market will gather momentum next year and contribute to overall growth for the first year since 2005. House prices are slated for a modest 2% gain in 2010.

Consumer spending is expected to remain sluggish given the lagged effects of past wealth loss and a weak labor market. The savings rate is not expected to rise sharply however and will average only 3-5% through 2012.

dividend_growth

正好是下次大选。

dara

do not believe it.

If jobless ratio kept staying above 10% in all 2010, SPX would drop to 500, because I think house price will have another leg down if jobless ratio really keeps so high.


regain the lost jobs before 2012? what does that mean? drops back to 3% in 2012?

Alchemist

2# dividend_growth

牛二买刀

“The 7.2 million jobs lost in the recession won't return until 2012 or beyond”

The keyword is "beyond".

nctree