10/09/2009 大盘回顾 （Up All 5 Days of Week）

Cobra

Summary:

Watch the possible breakout of the 9/23 high.

Still could be very close to a short-term top.

	TREND	MOMENTUM		COMMENT - Sample for using the trend table.
Long-term	Up
Intermediate	Down	Neutral
Short-term	Up	Neutral
SETUP	DATE	INSTRUCTION	STOP LOSS	Mechanic trading signals for reference only. Back tested since 2002.
Index ST Model I		*Watch Breakout		Stopped out long with gain on 10/01. No position held now.
Index ST Model II				Stopped out short flat on 10/08.  No position held now.
VIX ENV			10/08 Low	Long on 10/06.
Reversal Bar	10/09	*Adjust stop loss	10/06 Low	Long on 10/05.

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: WATCH THE POSSIBLE BREAKOUT OF THE 9/23 HIGH

 

1.0.8 SPX Cycle Watch (Weekly)，上周末的report跟大家报告了Elliott Wave International的看法，2个理由，认为惨烈的Wave 3开始了：

1. Four of three resistance。

2. 历时74 week的Wave 1 down的Fib 38.2 正好是三月以来反弹持续的28 week。

从本周反弹的情况看，如果下周SPX breakout the 9/23的high 1080，那以上说法就不成立了，取而代之的可能是A = C，也就是说Target 1159，时间上，俺的next 22 Week cycle，正好是74 week的Fib 50，大约涨到11月中旬的样子。

 

以上仅仅是猜测，俺暂时have no idea about intermediate-term的方向。俺的bottom line有两点：

1. Breakout above 9/32 high，Index ST Model I会出买信号，如果没有出现reversal day，就是说最终Close > Open，并且不是Doji的话，那，俺会follow一小部份。

2. 1.2.1 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm，由于breadth还是很overbought外加TRAN还是没有confirm INDU new high，因此俺不太相信1159的target，还是认为至少应该有10%左右的correction。

 

5.0.5 S&P Sector Bullish Percent Index I (Weekly)，5.0.6 S&P Sector Bullish Percent Index II (Weekly)，有空可以看一下，不少sector还是overbought，特别是Tech sector，way too overbought。

 

SHORT-TERM: MAINTIAN THE CONSOLIDATION THEN PULLBACK FORECAST

 

Short-term，俺还是看pullback，至少10/8号的the SPY's 12th unfilled gap会补，不过目前不sure是先new high呢，还是先pullback。

 

1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min)，Symmetrical Triangle breakout，text book target是$108，也就是说可能会先冲击new high。

 

1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min)，介个图的SPY and QQQQ negative divergence是说，可能周一就pullback，不会先去new high。大家顺便可以注意一下蓝色注释框里列出的过去8个unfilled gaps，每个空之间都至少隔着一周到两周，而不是像现在一样10/5，10/6，10/8号，几乎是连着的gap，介个，俺认为too much。

 

The bottom line：1.1.3 QQQQ Short-term Trading Signals，黑棒棒的2个预言，周五兑现了第一个，因此还是有理由相信过去的pattern依然工作，这就是说we're very close to a short-term top。因此依然maintian the consolidation then pullback的forecast。

 

INTERESTING CHARTS:

 

介个来自www.bespokepremium.com，一周5天都涨的并不多见。

 

下面的图，红色的棒棒，是自2002年仅有的4次，至少连涨4天 plus 最后一天Russell 3000有1600以上stock up on decreased volume。

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Summary:

Watch the possible breakout of the 9/23 high.
Still could be very close to a short-term top.



 
TREND
MOMENTUM
 
COMMENT - Sample for using the trend table.

Long-t ...
Cobra 发表于 2009-10-11 00:21

tigtig8

Thanks

man_student

1# Cobra




First on first page !

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tinystraw

thanks Cobra laoda

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