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One great Q&A.
问: This market just makes me say WOW constantly. I can’t believe we haven’t had a significant pullback after this run. I have read theory upon theory about this, from well-known sources, and I have to ask your opinion of the idea that this market is being goosed by interventionists. One idea is that a strong bull market eases public anger over last year’s events, injects fresh complacency, and thus makes it easier to keep the status quo rather than broad market overhaul. Thoughts?
答: People were saying the same thing last year when the market was moving in other direction! However, if we are going to be honest with ourselves (which is always difficult to do especially if it includes owning our own mistakes), I think we have had at least three oversold pullbacks in the rally from the March 9th low. They may not be considered significant to you especially when compared with size of corrections seen last year, but they were enough to at least qualify as buyable pullbacks within a strong rally.
I make this point because I’m really tierd of hearing all of the griping and complaints by those who have convinced themselves that there haven’t been entry points since the rally begun, because they’re clearly have been. Yes, each time it was very uncomfortable to buy the dip (it always is) and each time all of the bears have predicted that the rally was over just to be proved wrong again. That’s classic “climbing the wall of worry” activity. While we always have to be on the lookout for trend changes as traders, many of us try to outsmart what we’re simply seeing on our screens and it can hinder your performance.
As you know, you can spend a lifetime trying to figure out cute explanations why the market acts the way it has. In fact, there are very popular bloggers who spend every minute of every day to get you to think this way. But, please keep this in mind. While it is entertaining, I never met a successful trader who devotes a lot of time thinking about conspiracies and/or spends time blaming market movements on manipulation. Sure, there may be some truth in what you and others say (I’m not smart enough to argue against it), but the question remains – how exactly does that suspicion help us do better in the market? In my experience, a lot of individual investors get trapped by these suspicions and mistrust (i.e. which also create emotional biases) and instead should be devoting far more time to just paying attention to the market itself and not what they want to see or want to believe.
Finally, please remember this – “the market is the sum total of the wisdom and the ignorance of all of those who deal in it. We dare not argue with the market’s wisdom.” |
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狗仔卡
发表于 2009-10-8 10:07 PM
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发表于 2009-10-8 10:16 PM
