10/08/2009 大盘回顾 （Short-term top coming?）

Cobra

Summary:

Could be very close to at least a short-term top.

	TREND	MOMENTUM		COMMENT - Sample for using the trend table.
Long-term	Up
Intermediate	Down	Neutral
Short-term	Up	Neutral
SETUP	DATE	INSTRUCTION	STOP LOSS	Mechanic trading signals for reference only. Back tested since 2002.
Index ST Model I				Stopped out long with gain on 10/01. No position held now.
Index ST Model II			10/06 High	*Stopped out short flat on 10/08.  No position held now.
VIX ENV	10/08	*Move stop loss	10/08 Low	Long on 10/06. *Tighten stop or let it run, it's up to you.
Reversal Bar	10/08	*Move stop loss	10/08 Low	Long on 10/05. *Tighten stop or let it run, it's up to you.

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: MAINTIAN THE CONSOLIDATION THEN PULLBACK FORECAST

 

继续维持consolidation then pullback的forecast。至少俺们是在一个short-term top附近。是不是intermediate-term top，那要看pullback的strength。有没有可能错？当然可能。09/23的high taken，那没说的，Index ST Model I 会出买信号。会不会太迟了？不是有VIX ENV以及Reversal Bar Setup的short-term long嘛？Index ST Model II 今天stopped out of short position，既然看顶了，为啥还stop out？最重要的原则，宁愿错过，也不能赔钱。

 

1.1.3 QQQQ Short-term Trading Signals，黑棒棒的2个预言：1. gap down tomorrow；2. Very close to a short-term top。So far工作的不错哈。

 

下面介个图讲过，CPCE很低，往往意味着consolidation then pullback。对比一下蓝色虚线和圈圈标出来的过去，Market so far并没有走多远，还是consolidation的范围。

 

介个来自www.sentimentrader.com，统计上讲最近应该有pullback。顺便说，俺已经把介个setup加入俺的watch list了，以后有情况，随时向大家报告。

 

1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min)，今天是SPY的第12个unfilled gap，老show介个图，大家也腻了，那就换个看看：1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily)，既使很严格的high to low gap，COMPQ也有8个了，太多了。

 

1.0.9 SPX Cycle Watch (60 min)，明天是个cycle due date，因此也是说可能是个top。

 

1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min)，可能是个Descending Triangle，target附近很多support，看着挺logical，呵呵。

 

The Bottom Line：俺认为最少最少今天的gap会补，因此最近不宜太bullish。

 

SHORT-TERM: NO UPDATE

 

INTERESTING CHARTS: NONE

 

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