09/24/2009 大盘回顾 （CPCE Calls for a Top Again）

Cobra

Summary:

CPCE calls a market top again.

SPY short-term is down with initial target around $103.38.

	Trend	Momentum	Comments - Sample for using the trend table.
Long-term	Up
Intermediate	Up	Neutral
Short-term	Down*	Neutral
My Emotion	Down*

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: TREND STILL IS UP BUT CPCE ARGUES FOR A TOP NOW

 

2.8.0 SPX:CPCE，今天介个图触发了market top的信号，不过要看今后几天里trend line能否hold。

 

Bottom line：1.2.1 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm，这两天的下跌，对NYA200R，BPSPX and NYHILO并没有造成多大的影响，这就是说目前pullback的幅度还不足以修正这些record high的overbought。

 

SHORT-TERM: SPY INITIAL PULLBACK TARGET COULD BE AROUND $103.38

 

1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min)，由于形成了lower low并且最下面的MACD sell signal triggered，因此俺downgrade short-term from up to down。理论target around $103.38。

 

INTERESTING CHARTS:

 

3.1.0 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP Daily)，record volume today。No idea bullish or bearish，不过俺订的paid service，不少看涨US$。

 

3.4.2 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO 30 min)，RSI way too oversold，short-term可能会有rebound，不过overall，如果大家同意前面说的US$ bullish的话，intermediate-term油应该bearish。

Diffusion

yanansi

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X中国陆军

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yaobooyao

3.4.2 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO 30 min)，RSI way too overbought，short-term可能会有rebound，不过overall，如果大家同意前面说的US$ bullish的话，intermediate-term油应该bearish。

应该是“oversold'， 特此订正。

感谢蛇老的研究报告，对美金、油、大盘的判断举双手赞成。

happyface

michaelzhang

thx a lot!!!

Alchemist

hi-liter

关于石油，老蛇的意思是还会降？那我先等等。谢谢！