市场就这德行，搓着搓着就硬挺上火鸟。。。

多吉

I studied Dow history of the last 11 years and came up with something interesting
that I'd like to share with you folks for commendations or further discussion.

The finding copes well with the assumption I made in the thread @ LINK1,
in which I suspected that the broad market may have a pull back in late October.

The biggest concern about Oct is that the POMO operation will have to halt as the
the deadline approaching by the end of the October, although FED have appealed
to Congress for an extension. The bull may soon run out of ammunition.

Okay, here it comes what I found out...

BB Walk Above Weekly EMA50 (missing interval =< 2 weeks):

11wks Feb. ~ Apr, 1998, pull back to wkly EMA20, then up to new high (+10.4%)

11wks Mar. ~ May, 1999, pull back to wkly EMA10, then up to new high (+10.6%)

11wks Sept ~ Nov, 2003, pull back to wkly EMA10, then up to new high (+13.0%)

10wks Sept ~ Nov, 2006, pull back to wkly EMA10, then up to new high (+6.8%)

9 wks July ~ Sept, 2009 (into Oct. for 11 weeks?)





I assume the market would hit the wall when the Institutional Index  $XII
reaches its Weekly EMA100 = 520 and retreat for weeks to regain momentum.

Do a math: (520-504.73)/504.73 = 3.03%, DJI 9820*(100% +3.03%) = 10120

When DJI reaches 10120, the 2009 BB walk would have entered its 11th week.

If history repeats itself again, be expecting a healthy correction out there.

Better off to have a vacation then and wait at weekly EMA20 to buy dip again.
If the market keeps ramping up and I miss out the train, so be it. Just consider
the break as a Royal treatment to myself.

In the big picture, I take this whole round of "Obama Rally" would not take
a serious rest until DJI hit Monthly BB top band, which coincidents around
11800. Again, I'd like to emphasize that we are only half way through.

For those who know little about American market history, colderdown have
an excellent thread "大风起兮云飞扬" @ LINK2, in which he portrait a great
case study on the market performance during the Great Depression when
the government monetary policy shares a great deal in similarity to the
Obama's solution. Don't fight the government, as I have always warned
perm bears here on board.

History repeats itself time to time, since the human nature persists.

zpwang

沙发么

polopolo

Not to agree or disagree with DJ. Just consider this possibility:

In the next few months to one year time, unemployment will certainly rise. The question is how high it will go.

In this case, the govt will have no choice but "forcing" businesses not to lay off people.

How will this impact stock market?

I think that will be an very interesting development.

Grosmont

very nice one.

many thanks

ROOKIE2

thanks

tigtig8

thanks

2001ht09

thanks

jackyking

A UCLA study shows CA may come out of recession in 2012, with unemployment in the high 9s and rising into 10s, how long can gov manipulate this market?

jackyking

great piece of work, thanks DJ! as always.

colderdown

多吉兄弟说得对，中短期看，股市靠政府的钱，长期看，政府印钱是拿将来的税收做抵押，一但信用全失，美元资产将被抛弃。所以钱不是能乱印的。但我看FED是要坚持印下去，所以最后的结果是要倚靠美国超强的武力。你们以为我说的要买实物黄金，买罐头，买枪是在开玩笑吗？刚看了1911的0.4，好枪啊！

风清扬

1# 多吉


赞

Aibeibei

多谢

soulvirus

老大们忙来忙去， 青蛙就不要频繁交易了，持仓不动为上

hi-liter

不能不顶。谢谢DJ ！

JL01

Thanks!

dommy

ding

Noah

Thanks! Ding!!!

Diffusion

happyface