The S&P has now enjoyed four straight days of a higher open that the previous day's close, a higher low than the prior day's low, a higher high than the prior day's high and a higher close than the prior day's close. That's a remarkable feat of strength, no doubt enough to take home the Festivus crown.
Using the exchange-traded fund SPY as a proxy for the S&P, there have been only three other dates in its history that accomplished a similar victory. Those were 06/02/00, 05/15/08 and 07/21/08. Oddly enough, each of those signaled a short-term peak within a day or two, and lower prices over all time frames from one week to one month later.
Using the S&P 500 futures, we get more instances (9 of them), but not much better results. Over the next couple of weeks, they showed a positive return 33% of the time and an average risk (-2.4%) that doubled the average reward (+1.1%).
The problem with that is that we had even more compelling evidence for a decline heading into this week, and especially heading into yesterday, and the market has tossed those concerns aside with no more effort than a giant swiping away a nagging gnat.
The last time we saw this - really the only time we've seen this since 2007 - was in July just as the market was embarking on a steady month-long upward swing. Given how far the market has already traveled, and the minor blip of a correction preceding the current rally, I've doubted we're going to see a repeat of anything like we witnessed in July, but I can't ignore the ease with which we've rolled over short-term overbought conditions and extremely consistent negative seasonal tendencies. I'm still holding (precariously!) to the idea that we'll see weakness in the sessions ahead, but a breakout to new intraday highs that lasts for more than a couple of hours will erase that completely. | 
狗仔卡
发表于 2009-9-10 07:47 AM
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变色卡
发表于 2009-9-10 07:48 AM
第一页，哈啊哈@
