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高开，但在阻力以下，会不会补空，不知道。老规矩，10:30am ET以后，如果空没补且有新高的话，那今天会是个strong uptrend day，不过今天以后，至少数据统计不是很好玩。
This would be the first time since last Labor Day that the S&P gapped open at least +1% from the prior close the day after a holiday. That wasn't a great time to be chasing the buying pressure, as the futures closed 1.6% lower than they opened...and kept right on sliding for the next month. The time prior to that was in February 2008, and ended with a similar (but not quite so vicious) result.
Prior to those two, though, the S&P held up very well after the gap, at least for the day. Out of 7 instances, the futures added to their opening gains all 7 times, and by an average of a whopping +1.7%. All but one showed a gain larger than +1%.
That's the good news for the bulls. The bad news is that all but one occurrence gave back all the gains within 10 days, usually much sooner (the average was 3.5 days).
Chart B: Liquidity Inflows and Outflows
Liquidity inflows are critical to the market's action. If indicators are weakening while Liquidity is flowing in, then the liquidity inflow will take precedence and hold the market up. Liquidity inflows had an up tick while in extreme high territory. This is still very high, so we could see some unusually high volatility in the markets.
Chart C: Institutional Accumulation/Distribution
The Institutional Investors were in Accumulation with the Buy/Sell spread increasing. Institutional buying increased, and Institutional selling decreased. This is now a WARNING condition, because Institutional Investors have their buying in a down trend with lower/highs and lower/lows. Institutional Investors are very smart ... how many times have we seen them take the buying and selling lines to equal (just touching each other), and then whipsaw Accumulation back up faking everyone out? So, this is a cautionary warning where we need to watch what they do carefully.
*** Conclusion on above charts: Conditions are still net positive but showing a duress condition. Also, the major indexes are showing MACD negative divergences building which have been increasing risks levels.
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狗仔卡
发表于 2009-9-8 08:01 AM
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发表于 2009-9-8 08:02 AM
发表于 2009-9-8 08:06 AM
