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高开在昨天的high之上，因此有可能空不补，not sure。
Chart A: Daily Volume trending on the SPY
Some of the Institutional investors were concerned about the dropping volume as the market rallied. This first chart below, show's the SPY and its volume with a 14 day simple moving average. During this bear market, there were 6 occasions where the volume's 14 SMA moved down and then broke a resistance line to the upside. On all 6 occasions, the SPY went lower afterwards.
Today: For the past few weeks, the SPY's Volume has been ABOVE its resistance line (a caution) ... but note that was not rising or falling, but going sideways. (The SPY's Volume was NOT shooting up like past instances and is meandering sideways. This was not the same profile of the past conditions yet.) Yesterday, the NYA Down Volume was above its blue resistance line for the third day, so this "under duress" Caution condition has gotten more serious ... also, the SPY's Volume started to move higher. This is a short term down condition right now.
Chart B: Liquidity Inflows and Outflows
Liquidity inflows are critical to the market's action. If indicators are weakening while Liquidity is flowing in, then the liquidity inflow will take precedence and hold the market up. Liquidity inflows had a small down tick while in extreme high territory. This is still very high, so we could see some unusually high volatility in the markets.
Chart C: Institutional Accumulation/Distribution
The Institutional Investors were in decreasing Accumulation with the Buy/Sell spread decreasing. Institutional buying decreased, and Institutional selling increased. This is now a WARNING condition, because Institutional Investors are getting closer to going into Distribution. Institutional Investors are very smart ... how many times have we seen them take the buying and selling lines to equal (just touching each other), and then whipsaw Accumulation back up faking everyone out? So, this is a cautionary warning where we need to watch what they do carefully.
*** Conclusion on above charts: Conditions are still net positive but showing considerable deterioration. Also, the major indexes are showing MACD negative divergences building which have been increasing risks levels.
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狗仔卡
发表于 2009-9-3 08:04 AM
提升卡
置顶卡
沉默卡
喧嚣卡
变色卡
发表于 2009-9-3 08:05 AM
THX