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Cobra has pointed out when both SPX and VIX close red, next day the market favors a green close.
I did more work on this:
In last 60 trading days: 3 out of 4 days closing green with SPX close% average of 0.45%
In last 450 trading days: 19 out of 33 days closing green with SPX close% average of 0.10%
In last 2680 trading days (back to 1999): 116 out of 209 closing green with SPX close% average of 0.09%
A table attached below shows all those days for your own reference. (Highlighted rows are days of SPX and VIX closing red, non-highlighted are following days)
Well, I am more interested in when this rule of thumb would fail.
When this happens, next day the market tends to open very flat. However, when it gaps down or up, some interesting thing emerges. If gap down > -0.2%, this rule very likely will fail (6 out of 7 with a RED close. The only exception occurred on 04/14/2009). On the other hand, if gaps up > 0.15%, this rule gets strengthened (8 out of 10 with a GREEN close).
As a result, tomorrow's gap is a key to watch. If gaps up big, better believe it's bullish, if gaps down big, better believe bears might be in control.
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狗仔卡
发表于 2009-9-2 10:34 PM
提升卡
置顶卡
沉默卡
喧嚣卡
变色卡
发表于 2009-9-2 10:45 PM
真好，不是假好
也得给条生路不是？
