08/28/2009 大盘回顾 （SPX new high while NYMO below zero）

Cobra

Summary:

Still range bounded.

Market was topped when SPX was at or close to a new high while NYMO was below zero

Black bar on QQQQ daily chart usually means a top is close.

	Trend	Momentum	Comments - Sample for using the trend table.
Long-term	Up
Intermediate	Up	Neutral	Further confirmation needed for the intermediate-term buy signals.
Short-term	Up	Neutral
My Emotion	Wait		Still think this is a bear market rally.

 

Bottom line，still range bounded，因此还是方向不明。从0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals上看，SPX一直受压于Rising Wedge resistance，能否breakout，nobody knows。Personally，俺比较倾向于是向下。

 

Elliott Wave International周五的报告说可能market top了，大跌即将开始，理由之一是C = A * 0.618的理论target到了。不过这一说法，好像很多数波的都不同意。嗯，俺倒是有2个证据，不一定说大跌开始，但至少有比较高的几率SPX离short-term top不远了。

 

7.0.8 SPX and NYMO Divergence Watch，SPX new high而McClellan Oscillator却跌到了0以下，这从过去的情况看，至少是个短期顶部。

 

1.1.3 QQQQ Short-term Trading Signals，黑棒棒意味着，1. 第二天低开；2. 离顶部不远了。

 

最后引用一段John Murphy周五的Market Message供参考：

 

The two up arrows show bond yields turning up three months before stocks in 2009. Both rose together into June when bond yields peaked. The August move to new 2009 highs by stocks, however, hasn't been confirmed by a similar move in bond yields (see falling green line). When two markets are positively correlated, and one of them starts dropping (bond yields), that's usually an early sign that the other one (stocks) may start to drop as well.

COS

shafa

COS

头一次，激动啊！

phoenix

stockoperator

ding,thanks

javamood

数波的看C以后大跌的target是哪啊?

Cobra

数波的看C以后大跌的target是哪啊?
javamood 发表于 2009-8-30 01:36

还有一份newsletter说是如果wave 3开跌的话，根据H&S Top算出来的理论target是0，呵呵。还说米国最终要发生革命。

javamood

还有一份newsletter说是如果wave 3开跌的话，根据H&S Top算出来的理论target是0，呵呵。还说米国最终要发生革命。
Cobra 发表于 2009-8-29 21:40

总算等到这一天了
这次我们胡同要出人头地了

live111

革命?

laolaoyao

1st page?

Cobra

老蛇真是为HT作出了无比的贡献。不仅自掏腰包运行网站，还要subscribe各类投资通讯，stockcharts, John Murphy, Stocktiming, EWI, Sentimentraders... Wow... 老蛇不是财主，就是疯了！！！老蛇真是我们共产主义的楷 ...
buohya 发表于 2009-8-30 01:59

呵呵，thanks，那你要多发贴支持HT哈。俺很喜欢看你的贴的。

kec

支持蛇总

bigbadwolf

quickcow

第一page.

Thank you, big cobra

121212128

thanks!

CoolMax

呵呵，跟老蛇撞衫了。

CoolMax

还有一份newsletter说是如果wave 3开跌的话，根据H&S Top算出来的理论target是0，呵呵。还说米国最终要发生革命。
Cobra 发表于 2009-8-30 01:40 AM

这种极点，需要从理论中去除。

说不定还能发现一个金融的黑洞理论。