天朝股市同world market不再相关？

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８月２８日收盘
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貌似天朝股市同world market不再相关。

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日本基本平盘。
NIKKEI 225        10,580.00        +50.00

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European Economic Confidence Jumps More Than Forecast

By Gabi Thesing

Aug. 28 (Bloomberg) -- European confidence in the economic outlook increased twice as much as economists forecast in August, adding to signs the region is emerging from the deepest recession in more than six decades.

An index of executive and consumer sentiment in the 16 nations that use the euro rose to 80.6, the highest since October, from 76 in July, the European Commission in Brussels said today. Economists had predicted a two-point increase to 78, according to the median of 29 estimates in a Bloomberg survey.

The euro-area economy barely contracted in the second quarter after its two largest members, Germany and France, unexpectedly returned to growth as improving global trade boosted demand for exports and government stimulus programs rekindled domestic spending. European Central Bank policy makers including President Jean-Claude Trichet have warned the recovery may face obstacles such as rising unemployment.

“We are in recovery mode,” said Julian Callow, chief European economist at Barclays Capital in London who predicts the euro-area economy will expand 0.6 percent in the third quarter. “Unemployment will remain a drag unfortunately because overall activity is still sharply down and the labor market hasn’t adjusted sufficiently, but the really good news is that the services sector seems to be rebounding, which should boost consumer confidence.”

German Services

While Europe’s economy shrank 0.1 percent in the three months through June, German services and French manufacturing unexpectedly expanded in August, with business, investor and consumer confidence in Europe’s largest economy also jumping more than economists forecast. Italian consumer sentiment rose to its highest since March 2007, a report showed yesterday.

The raft of positive news prompted Stephane Deo, UBS Ltd.’s chief European economist, last week to raise his forecast for euro-area economic growth to 2.1 percent in 2010, which would be the most in three years. “The recovery will gain traction in 2010,” Deo said in a note to investors. He predicts the upswing will be driven by companies restocking depleted inventories and exports as the global recovery advances.

Volkswagen AG, Europe’s largest carmaker, this month raised its full-year sales forecast after governments’ “cash-for- clunkers” programs helped spur demand for its Golf and Polo compacts. Deliveries may fall 5 percent this year, half the drop previously estimated, the Wolfsburg, Germany-based company said. Voestalpine AG, Austria’s biggest steel company, today said it is ending short working hours at its Linz plant after demand for flat steel rebounded “significantly.”

Two-Month Gain

European stocks were higher today after L’Oreal SA and Dell Inc. reported earnings that beat analysts’ estimates. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index was 1.2 percent higher at 10:35 a.m. in London. The euro, heading for its first two-month gain against the dollar since March 2008, was up 0.2 percent at $1.4365.

Rising unemployment may slow the pace of the rebound by weighing on consumer spending. European retail sales fell for 15th month in August, the Bloomberg purchasing managers index showed yesterday. The European Commission projects the jobless rate will reach 11.5 percent next year, up from the current 9.4 percent, which is already the highest in 10 years.

In the U.S., the world’s biggest economy, consumer spending probably rose in July at half the pace of the previous month, a Bloomberg survey of economists shows. A Reuters/University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment may show a drop to 64 this month from 66 in July, according to a separate survey. Both reports are due to be released later today.

Lower Prices

Consumers in Europe still expect companies to lower prices further over the next year, even as annual price declines are forecast to ease, today’s report showed. A gauge of consumers’ price expectations over the next 12 months fell to the lowest since the data were first compiled in 1990, the commission said.

Even though consumer prices are forecast to fall from a year earlier in August, the pace of the decline is projected to ease to 0.4 percent from 0.6 percent in July, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists. The inflation data will be published on Aug. 31.

ECB officials have stressed the heightened degree of uncertainty over the economic outlook and indicated they won’t rush to withdraw emergency measures to bolster growth. The central bank has cut its benchmark interest rate to a record low of 1 percent, flooded banks with cash and started buying covered bonds in an effort to revive lending.

“We see some signs confirming that the real economy is starting to get out of the period of freefall,” Trichet said at the U.S. Federal Reserve’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on Aug. 22. This “does not mean at all that we do not have a very bumpy road ahead of us.”

UBS’s Deo says the recovery is here to stay. “The ongoing rebound is as impressive as the decline was,” he said.