放一炮：牛牛不容乐观

zhyuan04

现在股市price in的recovery speed是不可持续的，一旦接踵而来的经济数据落后于现在price in的乐观估计，大调整就要来了。让我们看看明天3个经济数据的市场预期.
1. durable order: 3.2% increase. this is way over opitimistimic. My prediction is less than 2%.
2. consumer confidence: 47.9. There is no sign that consumers pick up their confidence according other recent economic data. My prediction is at most 47 and could be as bad as 45.
3. Case-Shiller Home Price Index: -16.40%. I am not sure about this one.
Therefore, 明天早盘也许可能大概我们能看到一个gap down open.

Diver

现在看熊是需要极大的勇气的。胡同里一个接一个理直气壮的大熊都投降了。

consumer confidence 是MM操纵的工具，完全按MM的需要而定。它本身就是一个空对空的虚的东东。所以，俺不sure.

现在股市price in的recovery speed是不可持续的，一旦接踵而来的经济数据落后于现在price in的乐观估计，大调整就要来了。让我们看看明天3个经济数据的市场预期.
1. durable order: 3.2% increase. this is way ove ...
zhyuan04 发表于 2009-8-24 16:23

trueself

恩。小心玩得万年股

siocsioc

Where have you been? Any comment on crude oil? How high it can go?

maimait

I like your solid analysis.

nasd

1# zhyuan04

consumer confidence is just one of the many "revisable" statistics provided by the GS-owned-government and will only serve the purpose of their x40 trading profit, nothing else.  Enough said.

Serviceberry

Agree

slcgh