$SPX目标1050

Diffusion

本来星期一大跌让我开始看熊的，毕竟经济还不是那么好。前两天看牛也纯粹是战术性的，本来想最多就是日内破一下1018， 然后就开跌的。。。

画了四张图，希望足够克服bias了。

Range consolidation + 向上突破，目标1050。

突破带量，还是支持牛牛。

前期高点1050，指向同一目标。另外还在上升趋势，没理由做空。

又见牛旗，目标还是1050。另外日内图上居然有一个gap，还是突破的时候留下了。牛牛很暴力。

详见我的blog，不过要点都在这里了。

http://diffusionresearch.blogspo ... table-strength.html

dara

same here.
Market so bullish since Middle July, but fundamental still sux.

But can you buy and hold now if the top is 1050, there is only 20-30points upside from here.

Diffusion

same here.
Market so bullish since Middle July, but fundamental still sux.

But can you buy and hold now if the top is 1050, there is only 20-30points upside from here.
dara 发表于 2009-8-22 01:07

我可能会找方向和大盘一致的beta较高的个股来短炒，stop设紧一点。不一定光炒大盘拉,分析大盘对我来说只是guideline.

如果实在要炒大盘，我建议可以等回调。没有回调就不操作，也没什么可惜的。

colderdown

3# Diffusion

I totally agree with you, even my "guess" is around 1076. But starting long from here is a bit risky. I have to say, my bear bias let me missed this 880-1026 run. Hell, let us to be honest, I traded against this trend. Nevertheless, if I long here, I may got my ass kicked by both side.

Diffusion

3# Diffusion

I totally agree with you, even my "guess" is around 1076. But starting long from here is a bit risky. I have to say, my bear bias let me missed this 880-1026 run. Hell, let us to be  ...
colderdown 发表于 2009-8-22 02:15

Almost the same here, I closed my long position this morning and start to short. Then it jumped up and I lose both the upside of my long and my short are stopped out. Have to say that my bias is my biggest enemy. That's why I have this post to reduce my bias.

Let me be frank: Why I fear to long from here? I fear that when the market goes down, my frustration will double and I may cut loss too quickly and jump into short too quickly. In that way I'll be slapped on both side of my face. Simply put, I just fear that my fear will make me lose more.

Will try to make a couple solid plan purely based on my analysis, not my bias; submit to the broker and forget about it. Let the market be the judge, not my second guess.

zhishun

狂顶，大盘涨几个点，垃圾就敢翻番。。。。。。。。

我可能会找方向和大盘一致的beta较高的个股来短炒，stop设紧一点。不一定光炒大盘拉,分析大盘对我来说只是guideline.

如果实在要炒大盘，我建议可以等回调。没有回调就不操作，也没什么可惜的。
Diffusion 发表于 2009-8-22 01:18

Diffusion

狂顶，大盘涨几个点，垃圾就敢翻番。。。。。。。。


zhishun 发表于 2009-8-22 03:11

李隆基

天真的冷酷

  再等2，3禮拜

smartll

9# 天真的冷酷

再等这么久后新高？

Diffusion

  再等2，3禮拜
天真的冷酷 发表于 2009-8-22 11:17

多长时间能hit target我还真没有考虑过。从60 min chart上看，如果对称的话，需要一个星期。而从15 min chart的牛旗上看，则只要一两天。有点矛盾。

姐姐分享一下为什么看两三周？

xiaoht

是1050到顶吗，如是的话，向上空间不太了。

Diffusion

是1050到顶吗，如是的话，向上空间不太了。
xiaoht 发表于 2009-8-22 20:26

1050是不是顶现在还真不好说，要看到达目标后市场的反应。上次看目标是1020，现在不但到了还突破了，就有理由看更高。如果到了1050还是这样回调突破，那就有理由再看高了。如果consolidate之后向下，或者是make intraday high然后向下，那就很有可能是到顶了。

michaelzhang

hutong123

good thanks

nomisy

very good analysis, thanks

Diffusion

E-Mini上方遇到强阻力，且连续下破两条up trend line，估计会回撤到1023一线寻求支撑。明天可能平开或者略微低开。