My recent UNG loss trades

xiaofengfeng

I have been burned by UNG a few times. Mostly because I did not cut loss fast enough.
Here is my recently UNG trading history
1) bought 1000 share at 13.8 a few days ago
2) price fall to 13.5, I should have cut lose but I did not
3) price fall to 13.2, I decided to sell Sep. covered $13 call. price $1.2 this way I was protected if the price fall to 12.6
4) ung price fall to 12.5
5) ung price fall to 12.2, I thought this is the bottom I bought back my calls at $.6, this lower my cost to 13.2
6) today ung fall to 11.55, my neat loss is $1700.
7) I am convinced this is close the bottom and decided to buy 10 Aug $11 call at $.55 and 20 Sep $13 calls at $.35, total cost me $1250, I am betting tomorrow the price will rebound, and hopefully next month it will also had a reasonable rebound.
8) UNG close today at 11.50

So far this has been a losser for me.  We will see what happen tomorrow and next month

Please feel free to comment.

jc200900

理论上nature gas至少要到9月才到底，年底年初可能有上升行情。你这么早跳进去做啥？而且UNG有众所周知的毛病，长期持有肯定亏的。

dong_wd

thanks for sharing

xiaofengfeng

理论上nature gas至少要到9月才到底，年底年初可能有上升行情。你这么早跳进去做啥？而且UNG有众所周知的毛病，长期持有肯定亏的。
jc200900 发表于 2009-8-20 19:32

Thanks for the comment. I know I got carried away by this trade. UNG was trading in the $12-$14 range, today's break down could mean capitulation which is bullish or the trading range is now $11-$13. Also next monday is the last day of Aug contract trading which is typically the bottom of the month.

I am a frog and
The reason I post my trading details here
1) Welcome comment so that I can learn from my mistake and from the pros.
2) Have a record so that I don't make the same mistake twice.

jc200900

建议你做几个月模拟交易，别浪费自己的真金白银。至于mistakes嘛，你这串交易，至少犯了N个错误:

1。买入之前没有理由可以断定UNG会涨。
2。买入以后没有止损。
3。交易太复杂。股票+卖靠+买靠。交易越复杂越容易亏。
4。股票越跌你越买，向下平均的结果一般是大亏。
。。。

xiaofengfeng

建议你做几个月模拟交易，别浪费自己的真金白银。至于mistakes嘛，你这串交易，至少犯了N个错误:

1。买入之前没有理由可以断定UNG会涨。
2。买入以后没有止损。
3。交易太复杂。股票+卖靠+买靠。交易越复杂越容 ...
jc200900 发表于 2009-8-20 19:59

Thanks
" 1。买入之前没有理由可以断定UNG会涨。"    It was on an uptrend when I bought it, so I let myself pass here
" 2。买入以后没有止损。"  Totally agree, and I am still learning how to set stop loss and how to control myself and have more discipline
" 3。交易太复杂。股票+卖靠+买靠。交易越复杂越容易亏。"  Thanks and I will remember this comment and try to learn and feel it in future trades
" 4。股票越跌你越买，向下平均的结果一般是大亏。" Agree, the few winning trade I had was actually "Average UP"

xiaofengling

你的名字跟我的太像了

xiaofengfeng

你的名字跟我的太像了
xiaofengling 发表于 2009-8-20 20:16

Yeah, it's close

TXK

If I were you, I would hold the UNG until next Jan.-Feb. (heating season). It would go up for sure, even double the price. $1,700 paper loss is not the end of world (unless you use margin). UND is not a leverage ETF, so you could hold it for long time. Hope you have a good luck! BTW, I bought UNG yesterday.

风清扬

volume is up, i think the chance is good

xiaofengfeng

If I were you, I would hold the UNG until next Jan.-Feb. (heating season). It would go up for sure, even double the price. $1,700 paper loss is not the end of world (unless you use margin). UND is not ...
TXK 发表于 2009-8-20 21:46

Thanks, $1700 loss is painful but that's the risk I had taken, and it will not affect me too much since I did not use margin and some other trades had some small gains. On the other hand I am little worried about holding this one for longer term due to contango, which is currently around 5% each month, another problem is that UNG is traded at about 15% premium to NG price. Since you bought yesterday, you should have a cost about $12.2 you could easily get out in next month. My experience has been that UNG is not a good stock for "Let profit run", it tend to run a little and fall back pretty hard. It's overall on a downtrend, although today's fresh fall may indicate capitulation, tomorrow's rig count report may finally convince the big guys that it's time push up NG's price. GL to you too!

3334440716

re

freestock

Correct me if I am wrong.
The last trading day of Aug. future contract of natural gas should be July 29 (last month) and
Sept. future should be Aug. 27 ( next Thursday), not Monday.

xiaofengfeng

13# freestock
I think you are correct, someone mention Monday is last trading day for the month on yahoo. According to NYMEX:  
"Last Trading Day
Trading terminates three business days prior to the first calendar day of the delivery month."

xiaofengfeng

Another correction, current contango is 10% to 30%! Wow! NG may be close to bottom, but UNG...

timothy

Another correction, current contango is 10% to 30%! Wow! NG may be close to bottom, but UNG...
xiaofengfeng 发表于 2009-8-21 07:12

I'm now holding Natural Gas.. why do you think it's close to bottom?

Thanks.

xiaofengfeng

16# timothy

Rig count reduced by half, potential hurricane, winter draw down season is coming, oil/NG price ratio is more than 20 !!! (historical value is around 8).  Again I think NG is close to bottom but for UNG the cantango is killing it.
Anyway I hold my Aug 11 calls to the close, so some time next week I will have another 1000 share of UNG at cost of 11.55.   Now my average cost for the 2000 share is $12.4.

Next week will be the last few days of trading of Sep NG futures, it could be rough. GLTA!

buctusa

UNG is really a bad bet for me too..................

xiaofengfeng

FCG maybe better for bet on NG, but its Vol is low, can anybody comment on it?

jc200900

FCG maybe better for bet on NG, but its Vol is low, can anybody comment on it?
xiaofengfeng 发表于 2009-8-21 16:52

FCG和nature gas走势脱节。