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今天好不容易有时间坐下来读读er. 手头上是一份mee的季报. 里面稍微介绍了一下煤市场,还捎带提到了天然气.
简化版 (匆匆总结,错误难免哈):
1. 经济的恶化导致煤市场的不景气.不同美国地区煤的用量2009年上半年比同期少19-25%.
2. 总的电力需求在降低,同时天然气发电量上升(o8还是有一定的功劳哈).
3. 与去年同期相比,煤的积压在不同地区上升了50-60%.
4. 各种煤产品的出口大幅降低.
5. 用煤大户钢厂的产量同比降低50%.
6. EIA估计本年度煤的使用降低8%.其中上半年已经下降了6%.
结论:
1 - 天然气的使用将会增加;
2 - 煤的销量会继续下降, 但是下降速度减缓;
3 - 偶认为, 一旦经济复苏,天然气将会比煤表现好.
下面是原文的摘抄.
The continuing global economic weakness has caused a significant deterioration of world coal markets. Coal contracting and shipment activities remained slow as end market coal consumers further reduced production and power generation targets.
Coal burn at utilities in the Southeastern United States was down 19 percent in the first six months of 2009 compared to the same period a year ago according to industry estimates. It is also estimated that the burn of Central Appalachia coal was down 25 percent in the first six months of the year. These declines are due in part to lower overall electric power demand and increased use of natural gas for power generation purposes.
Receipts of coal at Southeastern utilities were estimated to be down 6 percent in the first six months of 2009. Coal stockpiles in terms of tons increased by about 50 percent in the region since the end of June 2008. Receipts of Central Appalachia coal were estimated to have declined by 7 percent during the first six months of the year as compared to the same period a year ago. Stockpiles of Central Appalachia coal increased an estimated 60 percent year over year.
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that coal-fired generation in the domestic electric power sector will decline by approximately 6 percent in 2009 due to lower overall electric power demand and an increase of about 3 percent in generation fueled by natural gas.
Steam coal export volumes by U.S. producers decreased 14 percent in the second quarter of 2009 compared to the second quarter of 2008. Metallurgical coal exports declined 53 percent in the same period. The EIA forecasts that steam coal exports will decline by about 17 percent for the full year and met coal exports will decline by 27 percent as the weak global economy and a relatively strong U.S. Dollar are combining to reduce demand in international markets.
According to the World Steel Association, global steel output declined 22 percent in the first five months of 2009 as compared to the same period in 2008.
US steel production was at 44 percent capacity utilization for the first half of the year, down 51 percent compared to the first half of 2008
The EIA expects the coal industry to respond to the weak market conditions by reducing production by about 8 percent in 2009. According to EIA estimates, total U.S. coal production was down about 6 percent in the first half of the year. Production in Appalachia was down about 8 percent in the same period. |
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狗仔卡
发表于 2009-7-28 04:20 PM
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变色卡
发表于 2009-7-29 10:17 AM