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Summary:
Still suspect the current rally but I'll sure not trade against it.
Still expect a short-term pullback.
1.0.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly)，俺看到的最多的说法就是这是熊市的反弹，target可以直到Fib 61.8 1250那里，时间跨度，10月份或者明年。
反弹完毕将是很长时间的熊市，类似于1929年的熊市，借用一下Tim Knight的Legends of the Fall里的图，俺们目前相当于是在绿色区域里。
是不是这样呢？或者也许可能大概大牛市已经来了？说实话，俺已经搞不清楚大盘的方向了，因为俺的信号还是说market在做顶，但是市场的牛气已经让俺不敢相信这些信号了。今天的报告，就简单的把信号总结一下，大家自己判断吧。Bottom line，俺不相信这个rally，不过由于Intermediate-term几乎都是buy signal，因此俺不会trade against it。另外，从Long Term Liquidity Flows from www.stocktiming.com，可以看到liquidity已经到了大牛市的水平。除非有什么特别的事件发生，让Fed印钞机停转，从而造成liquidity枯竭，否则大盘很难下跌。而目前，以俺被俺领导称之为猪脑的脑瓜，实在脑力有限，想不出会有啥事件让liquidity枯竭。
Indicator Explanation: Long Term Liquidity is a measurement of Liquidity Injections flowing into the market from M3 and Foreign sources. Liquidity Expansion means that money inflows are at an expansionary rate which drives the market up. Decelerating Expansion is when the rate of inflows are decreasing while still net positive. Liquidity Contraction means that money inflows are being withdrawn from the markets at a level which is "net negative", and when this happens, the contraction results in a correction or pull back.
0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals，NYADV and NYUPV的negative divergence plus VIX:VXV sell signal plus various negative divergences，这个图是俺主要的心病。
比较一下2003年bottom的情况，同样的indicator set（VXV当时还没有），当时就没有这么多问题。
下面是NYADV and NYUPV的longer history。
2.3.3 NYSE Total Volume，俺不能解释volume越来越小的情况。8.0.6 Use NYTV to catch the market top/bottom，这是longer history，normalized NYTV还是比较可靠的。
2.3.4 Nasdaq Total Volume/NYSE Total Volume，这个看着还是顶。8.0.1 Use NATV/NYTV to catch the market top/bottom，这是longer history，normalized NATV:NYTV也是比较可靠的。
1.2.1 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm，$TRAN还没有confirm $INDU的new high。当然，personally，俺不是很看重这个，因为很难说啥时候$TRAN will catch up。
Short-term，俺还是expect pullback。理由：
1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min)，Bearish Rising Wedge plus lots of negative divergences。
Zweig Breadth Thrust from Telechart，very overbought了。
最后，给大家看一封信，是uempel，一个有几十年经验的veteran trader给俺的信，俺相信他是比较委婉的劝俺不要太bearish，因此应该也适合广大的熊熊。有时候stop and take a rest可能是最好的strategy。当然，俺不是说他的想法就一定对，just I respect whatever he said。
I lost some money yesterday, because I was fooling around with the SPX at 960 – I was expecting a small drop. The up-move caught me by surprise and I had to jump out in a hurry.
But it was entirely my mistake – I had not studied the charts without a bias, I was not neutral.
I’m not sure if you are familiar with P&F charts, but this chart shows two things quite clearly, 1.) the trend is to the upside and 2.) the next resistance levels are at 993...
And something else: a great EW analyst, an Australian by the name of Zoran Gayer, got completely messed up in 2003. He just did not notice the change of trend in March, failed to understand that the market was heading north again. For 3 years he kept on making bearish calls. There is also a tragic aspect to the story: he died in 2006. You can read all his posts in the archives at Safehaven com, search for Zoran Gayer. It’s worthwhile taking a look at them, because they are really good charts and what he writes makes sense. But Zoran was wearing blinders.
Why am I writing this: the lack of enthusiasm for this rally will propel it to the upside. The SPX could easily be 150 points higher in a few months time.
I shall be going to my mountain house for a few days. No internet connection there, I shall do the lawn (no high-tech), plant some trees (I intend to plant many birches around the house) and last but not least: I want to forget my work and the market for a little while...
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狗仔卡
发表于 2009-7-25 05:05 PM
提升卡
置顶卡
沉默卡
喧嚣卡
变色卡
发表于 2009-7-25 05:08 PM
发表于 2009-7-25 05:09 PM
Enjoy your peaceful life in your mountain house. If possible, bring us back some pictures... 
