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[转贴] CIT Prepares To File Bankruptcy

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发表于 2009-7-11 08:06 PM | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式


CIT Prepares To File Bankruptcy
Posted by Tyler Durden at 2:15 PM
SATURDAY, JULY 11, 2009
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/07/ci....

The WSJ reporting that the lender to over 1 million small sized businesses has hired Skadden Arps in preparation of a bankruptcy filing. The formerly largest competitor to GE Capital for any and every semi- and fully-toxic loan imaginable, has been so far outright denied a bailout by an administration that has rarely professed a non-socialist approach to corporate demise. Unfortunately for the company, whose new HQ office lobby on 42nd street looks more like a club out of Meatpacking, flashing either a blue or deep purple colored decor, may be Obama's first Guinea pig in financial failure since Lehman.

CIT Group Inc., a lender to almost a million mostly small and midsize businesses across the country, is preparing for a possible bankruptcy filing after so far failing to win a government guarantee to help it borrow, said people familiar with the matter.

CIT declined to comment on whether it was preparing a filing or why it had retained Skadden Arps. But if CIT did file, the consequences could be considerable, because the 101-year-old company, as of March 31, had $68 billion of liabilities.
A bankruptcy filing by CIT could affect thousands of small borrowers, from Dunkin' Donuts franchisees to restaurant owners andclothing retailers. "If CIT were to go away, it would take a financing option away from franchisees who want to buy stores or expand their networks," said Kate Lavelle, chief financial officer of Dunkin' Brands, the which owns Dunkin' Donuts and has had a 50-year relationship with CIT.

On Friday, many CIT bonds slumped on heavy trading, and its stock tumbled to its lowest since the lender went public in 2002, further hurting its chances of raising capital from the private sector without more government aid. CIT bonds that mature in February 2010 were trading at 83.5 cents on the dollar and yielding over 40%, indicating that debt investors think it is unlikely they will be repaid in full. CIT shares sank 33 cents, or 18%, to $1.53, after dipping as low as $1.13 during the day.

According to confidential documents reviewed by The Wall Street Journal, CIT has in recent weeks tried to assess the consequences of a failure of the lender on Middle America. Among them: Companies would lose access to $4 billion in untapped credit lines and thousands of manufacturers could run into problems.

If "run into problems" isn't the most greenshoot colored euphemism for a virtual halt in credit line access for small and medium corporations (that nobody really even wants now in the first place), I don't know what is. However, as in the Lehman failure, the CIT bankruptcy will merely expose the thousands of unintended consequences that the government, in its newly minted centralized planning role, has no possible way of fully evaluating, and the pain could likely be as pervasive and acute as last September.
发表于 2009-7-11 09:36 PM | 显示全部楼层
这会是炸弹吗?
1# oomoo10
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发表于 2009-7-11 10:54 PM | 显示全部楼层
sounds like it and this could be the real reason why stock dropped last week!
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发表于 2009-7-12 10:22 AM | 显示全部楼层
发信人: Helsinki (跑步然后桑拿), 信区: Stock
标 题: 热点讨论: CIT会破产吗?
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sat Jul 11 20:28:42 2009, 美东)

公司开始雇佣破产法律师事务所, 是真的要破产还是故作姿态以便FDIC能够担保债务呢?

如果CIT倒了, 对金融市场的打击虽然没有WAMU那么沉重, 但是对经济的恢复将产生很
大的影响, 其他公司会更加惜贷, 导致中小企业贷款成本增加.

CIT传统上和Wells Fargo和Goldman Saches关系都很好, 有很高的credit line.

现在大多数人都避开这个股票, 但是仍然有人在赌, 一帮人赌它破产,

另一帮人赌它

(1) 即使破产也不会立刻破产, 有机会回到3块以上,
(2) 有人撿便宜收购
(3) FDIC最终愿意担保

一百多年的老公司了, 死了也就碗大的疤
--
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发表于 2009-7-12 10:22 AM | 显示全部楼层
发信人: jhsph07 (银杏), 信区: Stock
标 题: Re: 热点讨论: CIT会破产吗?
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sat Jul 11 22:32:53 2009, 美东)

CIT垮掉的话, 财政部的二十三个亿又打了水漂.
--
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发表于 2009-7-12 10:22 AM | 显示全部楼层
发信人: ronin (我叫罗凌), 信区: Stock
标 题: Re: 热点讨论: CIT会破产吗?
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sat Jul 11 22:38:55 2009, 美东)

CIT似乎不是很妙

fdic公开表示不愿意担保债权,难道是因为fdic真的没钱了?

【 在 jhsph07 (银杏) 的大作中提到: 】
: CIT垮掉的话, 财政部的二十三个亿又打了水漂.
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发表于 2009-7-12 10:23 AM | 显示全部楼层
发信人: immortal (immortal), 信区: Stock
标 题: Re: 热点讨论: CIT会破产吗?
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sat Jul 11 22:40:53 2009, 美东)

我老赌钱时间不长,经验不多,请多指教

so show me one---just one example--- where a company hired bankruptcy lawyers
and didn't go through that wonderful legal process?
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发表于 2009-7-12 10:23 AM | 显示全部楼层
发信人: jhsph07 (银杏), 信区: Stock
标 题: Re: 热点讨论: CIT会破产吗?
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sat Jul 11 22:43:23 2009, 美东)

我就想看看财政部如何收场 - 2.33 billion 的优先股, 级别这么低, 破了产以后可全
部打了水飘了.
--
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发表于 2009-7-12 10:24 AM | 显示全部楼层
发信人: jhsph07 (银杏), 信区: Stock
标 题: Re: 热点讨论: CIT会破产吗?
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sat Jul 11 22:52:56 2009, 美东)

这倒也是! 2个B实在是有点少.
要说GS在烧CIT我有点不信, GS在里面有3个B的贷款, 虽然是secured的, 一旦破了产,
能拿回来多少却不好说.
还是远离CIT为好, 看戏吧.
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发表于 2009-7-12 10:25 AM | 显示全部楼层
发信人: jhsph07 (银杏), 信区: Stock
标 题: Re: 热点讨论: CIT会破产吗?
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sat Jul 11 23:05:07 2009, 美东)

if CIT did file chapter 11, the consequences could be considerable, because
the 101-year-old company, as of March 31, had $68 billion of liabilities.
A bankruptcy filing by CIT could affect thousands of small borrowers.
According to confidential documents reviewed by The Wall Street Journal, CIT
has in recent weeks tried to assess the consequences of a failure of the
lender on Middle America. Among them: Companies would lose access to $4
billion in untapped credit lines and thousands of manufacturers could run
into problems.

影响很大, 倒了的话, can cost DOW 500 points.
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发表于 2009-7-12 10:25 AM | 显示全部楼层
发信人: immortal (immortal), 信区: Stock
标 题: Re: 热点讨论: CIT会破产吗?
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sun Jul 12 00:18:36 2009, 美东)

it will be too late my son...
cause if and when you know cit would go under... actions will be taken
already by the big shots, and the cost for you to leave could be too big
already..

just my 0.02


【 在 summmer (Traveller) 的大作中提到: 】
: If there is any more bankruptcy from big financial institutes, I will
leave
: this market immediately.
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发表于 2009-7-12 10:26 AM | 显示全部楼层
发信人: Helsinki (跑步然后桑拿), 信区: Stock
标 题: Re: 热点讨论: CIT会破产吗?
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sun Jul 12 10:53:32 2009, 美东)

nothing to worry about short-term liabilities, the big problem is $10bn for
the 12-months debt ending 03/31/2010.

So if CIT has to go bankrupt, the time is 03/31/2010.

TLGP will give CIT 10 billion dollars, however, FDIC hasn't allowed CIT to
participate in TLGP. That's why the market becomes crazy.

CIT actually is short of not the full amount of 10 billion, it has lots of
asset to fill the hole. The real shortage is about 4 billion dollars.

After 8 quarters loss, CIT will have to announce another loss very soon. It
's getting really cheap. I believe the probabilities re:

(1) 20% someone buy the company at the bottom
(2) 35% the company restructures itself (such as exchange debt to shares, it
'll significantly dilute current shares; sell assets, also bad to
shareholders;)
(3) 26% FDIC will let CIT participate in TLGP
(4) 14% bankrupt (zero for shareholders)
(5) 5% GS or WFC or another bank will provide credit line


【 在 immortal (immortal) 的大作中提到: 】
: 我老对这个股票不熟。 请高手指点一下:
: 他们有什么压力要file? 下周有债务到期还是有什么非要file 不可的事情? 不能拖几
: 天或者几周么?
: 呢?
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发表于 2009-7-12 02:41 PM | 显示全部楼层
thanks
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发表于 2009-7-12 03:25 PM | 显示全部楼层
my sense is some big banks wants CIT to be gone, because big banks like JP Morgan WFC can do the same thing CIT is doing, they can easily take over CIT clients, that's another reason the FDIC does not worry because it does not have a system risk
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发表于 2009-7-12 07:32 PM | 显示全部楼层
wait to see the market reposnse
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发表于 2009-7-12 09:27 PM | 显示全部楼层
------------
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发表于 2009-7-13 02:59 PM | 显示全部楼层
Thanks!
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