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Summary:
Could be a short-term rebound at least Monday morning.
Could be a weak short-term rebound because of the flight to risk on Friday's sell off.
VIX has potential of rising more which paints a gloomy intermediate-term.
周一至少早盘有反弹的可能，主要理由是short-term model from www.sentimentrader.com，oversold。
不过，I see a flight to risk on Friday's sell off:
1. ISEE All Equities Only甚至一度涨到199，意思是说看涨的是看跌的两倍。而All Indices & ETFs Only的读数是100，这个，discussed here before，自3月的反弹以来，凡是出现Readings > 100，好像short-term，牛牛都不是很愉快。
2. 2.3.4 Nasdaq Total Volume/NYSE Total Volume，这个，不知道该说啥了。Histroy长点的chart，在这里：8.0.1 Use NATV/NYTV to catch the market top/bottom。另外，不要忘了，Tech Bullish Percent Index还是处于overbought状态，因此既使正面的理解NATV:NYTV ratio，tech的涨幅也有限啊。
综合以上情况，俺认为也许可能大概short-term的反弹不会strong，相反，倒可能会有个Major Distribution Day。7.1.3 Major Accumulation/Distribution Days，周五又是个Major Distribution Day，而由于此前的2个Major Distribution Day后已经有了像样的反弹，因此周五的Major Distribution Day应该计做the first Major Distribution Day，这就是说还会有the 2nd Major Distribution Day。
Intermediate-term，由于VIX要涨的可能性很大，因此比较gloomy。
2.0.1 Volatility Index (Weekly)，long-term support plus possible Bullish Falling Wedge plus STO positive divergence，VIX从这里开始上涨的可能不小。
Seasonality的角度讲，VIX at Seasonal Cycle Low。
7.3.3 VIX:VXV Trading Signals，未来的volatility要比现在高，换句话说就是VIX要涨。
最后，借用John Murphy周五报告的一段作为本文的结尾：
A PATTERN WITHIN A PATTERN... Earlier in the spring, I wrote about the possibility of a major "head and shoulders" bottom forming in the S&P 500. I drew a potential "neckline" over the January high which appears to have stopped the spring rally. That sets the stage for the formation of a possible "right shoulder" as part of a bottoming process. I wrote last weekend that a retracement of 38% to 50% of the spring rally was a likely downside target for that correction. The green Fibonacci retracment lines in Chart 2 shows those potential support levels. (The 62% retracement line is just above the level of the "left shoulder" formed in November and can't be ruled out either). The smaller (pink) neckline drawn under the May/June lows highlights the smaller head and shoulders top that I've identified recently. A close below that smaller neckline (which appears likely) would turn the short-term trend lower. [The actual downside target from that smaller top measures to 820]. Since the spring rally lasted three months, a downside correction shouldn't exceed that amount. That puts the outer limit for another bottom sometime in September (which fits with a usual seasonal autumn bottom). So while the short-term picture has worsened, the longer-term view remains more positive. I suggested a couple of weeks ago that "short-term" traders take some profits. Longer-range investors should view a downside correction over the summer months as an opportunity to do some buying at lower levels.
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狗仔卡
发表于 2009-7-5 12:50 AM
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变色卡
发表于 2009-7-5 12:55 AM
发表于 2009-7-5 01:29 AM
Ding
