高通胀下的几个股市：

dividend_growth

看你敢不敢做空！（所有图都是Log坐标）：

snowwolf229

buy buy buy

revolver

The question is, were they in recession during the same periods?

bigbadwolf

Turkish: 5-->50K in 20 yrs?!

dividend_growth

The question is, were they in recession during the same periods?
revolver 发表于 2009-6-10 23:24

图上50-60%的坑还是有不少，也许那时是recession吧。

svntn

1# dividend_growth


so far in the US, only inflation expectation is hiking, not inflation itself (TNX is soaring, not TIP). Should we trade based on such an obvious assumption (high inflation) that everybody expects to happen? I watched a TV program in 2005 which displayed what will happen in the US when gas price reaches $10 - horrible. I don't believe US government would allow this to happen. I don't believe hyper inflation until I see Fed distributes Dollar to average people like crazy as they do to the banks.

revolver

5# dividend_growth

Short-term growth correction or recession maybe, but not chronical recession.

These are all emerging countries. When they opened their markets, foreign capital flew in and the countries enjoyed a sustained high-growth/high-inflation periods to catch up the production gap with developed countries. I don't think it's the same set-up in US now.

Perhaps you can look at the US history itself from 1970 to 1980, it's also a high inflation period with no stock index increase for the whole decade, which means in real term it was a loss.

jsl

no, I dare not

soulvirus

偶是不敢做空哈。不过老美如果和这些3流国家一样乱搞，靠，偶回中国老家养猪种红薯去

colderdown

too simple, kind of naive

palm

thx

ybgx

polopolo

I don't think hyperinflation is on the card. Some inflation? Yes. Hyper? Remember that bank are using short term financing (float rate) to cover long term assets (much of it fixed rated like your mortgage). Hyperinflation means every American gets free lunch and all powerful people (bank and whoever financing the banks) get burned.

buctusa

If Inflation = Bull Market, making money is so easy for anyone................

Keep in mind that this time we are creating history rather than repeating history.

dividend_growth

US stock markets during high inflation (and oil shocks):







Inflation was shooting up during both periods, and yet stock market reacted very differently. Why? Here are some differences:

1. The Fed was tightening in the first case until April 1974.

2. Nixon's Watergate scandal, not only did it cause huge confidence loss in American institutions, it also prevented government from engaging in any economic stimulating activities. Nixon was out in late August and the S&P bottomed on Oct 3 1974.

3. Notice the 2 sudden drops in Oct 1979 and March 1980? They were caused by sudden Fed tightening. In the so-called "Saturday Night Massacre", the Fed met during a weekend in Oct 1979 and raised short term rate by 3 percentage points. In Feb/Mar 1980, they were tightening again, but reversed course when Jimmy Carter forced them to back down (for his reelection of course). Short term rate dropped from 10% to 5% and S&P rallied from 95 all the way up to 140. Only when the newly elected Reagan continued the tightening course in 1981, driving the short term rate to as high as 20%, did the stock market break.

So, how does this all relate to today's market? I welcome discussions.

dara

US stock markets during high inflation (and oil shocks):

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com ... amp;state=11&si ...
dividend_growth 发表于 2009-6-11 14:51

If high inflation  does happen in US, I believe market would not drop much, but would not go to high either.

But the problem is high inflation would not happen at all, let me tell you something I knew:

1. house price is still dropping, even it is not dropping, I do not see it would go up in the near term.
2. The key is people's income is decreasing here.
       for example, many guys had 10%(or +) bonus between 2005-2008, I do not think many companies will give you bonus this year, NO WAY, that is 10% income decrease.
      give you some other example, California forced its state employee to take 2 days unpaid leave each month, that is 5%+ salary cut. I know some Bayarea companies did the same thing. Even with the cut, CA is still short of 25B this year, tons of more cuts are on the way.
      Locally San Jose city counsel cut their own salary by 5% yesterday and they are asking city employee do the same.

Nobody would deny guys's income is down here. How can there could be a high inflation ?

the current oil price/material price up is just purely speculation. Just  like last year's June-July. It is unsustainable.
The high oil/material price will hurt China more than US for sure, because china has too many manufacturing companies. Right now people are counting on China to bring us out of wood, if OIL stays above 70, I doubt it. All I can say is more and more chin companies will close door.

colderdown

16# dara

There is different mechanism or path for inflation. Thus, you can't just judge it by looking household wealth only, even though it is a very important indicator.

dara

16# dara

There is different mechanism or path for inflation. Thus, you can't just judge it by looking household wealth only, even though it is a very important indicator.
colderdown 发表于 2009-6-11 18:48

I can not judge it by that? then by what?  anything else caused inflation could only be short-lived. say a war causing oil price high, but it would not be sustainable, it will drop fast and deep just like last year OIL from 147 to 33.

ybgx

17# colderdown


Why you have 704 post and only 703 points?  Maybe it's kind of deflation :-)

xiaozhu

HAHA