Best quarter for natural gas 来啦!

jeff110

看来天然气涨价的最好的季节即将到来.

"Will Natural Gas Be The Next To Rally?

It’s hard to get overly excited about natural gas when inventories are 22% above their five-year average and 31% above last year’s levels, and the gap between current inventories and historical averages has been rising steadily throughout the year.  However, while the fundamentals aren’t necessarily attractive, the historical relationship between the price of natural gas and oil is nearing record extremes.

With oil nearing 70 and natural gas below four, the current ratio between the two commodities is now over 18. Following prior periods when the ratio went above 18, while natural gas hasn’t always rallied, it has always outperformed oil.  Additionally, as we near the end of the second quarter, natural gas is entering what has historically been its best quarter of the year.  "

jeff110

补充一下:

The median return of natural gas since 1990 in Q3 is higher than any other quarter (10.4%), and it is also over twice the return of the next nearest quarter (4.5% in Q2).

buctusa

some ID will have "deep" discussion with you soon..................

trueself

1# jeff110


up , up is the only way to let me out of water

trueself

some ID will have "deep" discussion with you soon..................
buctusa 发表于 2009-6-9 15:47

no discussion ,just simply shoot up

wlee

Fig

the ratio will drop when oil drops, UNG may not rise

Simpletrader

certainly hope so

rightonmoney

hoho

torontonian

xiaofengling

我也买了ung，这一周它的换手率100%（网友说的，我还没check），我在想我们是不是中计了？

jeff110

我们来开一个类似COBRA' 白天灌水 '的专门关于UNG的白天灌水的贴子,不知感不感兴趣?

jeff110

补充:

当然我们没有COBRA的水平,开个UNG白天灌水的贴子只是为了有个互相交流的平台.

janez

Interested. Support.

gulf

文学城goldman2007 说没人看到UNG恶庄今天给出的信号？并贴了下面的信息，各位高手解释解释吧。

先谢谢了
PUT OPTIONS Expire at close Fri, Oct 16, 2009

Strike Symbol Last Chg Bid Ask Vol Open Int
5.00 UNYVE.X 0.05 0.00 N/A 0.05 2 51
6.00 UNYVF.X 0.05 0.00 N/A 0.10 10 10
7.00 UNYVG.X 0.15 0.00 0.10 0.15 5 9
8.00 UNYVH.X 0.15 0.00 0.20 0.30 11 606
9.00 UNYVI.X 0.43 0.08 0.35 0.45 136 864
10.00 UNYVJ.X 0.60 0.00 0.60 0.70 235 4,588
11.00 UNYVK.X 0.95 0.10 0.90 1.00 481 9,952
12.00 UNYVL.X 1.35 0.15 1.30 1.35 2,981 13,014
13.00 UNYVM.X 1.80 0.15 1.80 1.85 2,844 21,209
14.00 UNYVN.X 2.35 0.20 2.30 2.35 150,012 11,620
15.00 UNEVO.X 2.95 0.33 2.90 3.00 825 5,052
16.00 UNEVP.X 3.50 0.10 3.50 3.70 21 3,001
17.00 UNEVQ.X 4.20 0.20 4.20 4.40 39 1,290
18.00 UNEVR.X 5.20 0.47 5.00 5.20 200 889
19.00 UNEVS.X 5.90 0.50 5.80 6.00 2 496
20.00 UNEVT.X 6.70 0.50 6.60 6.80 130 828

leftbank

vol and open interest 都集中在12， 13块。所以庄家会在十月前把价格再压一压。

gulf

16# leftbank

谢谢你的解释！大概12，13 是底部？对吧

leftbank

不一定，也可以跌破12块。最naive的算法，今天花1.35买了12块put的，要10.65才breakeven.  离十月还远，中间变数太多。只不过要往下走走是一定的。