The Great Convergence

khronostock

As the current economic and financial crisis continues to unfold, one can no longer ignore the mysterious yet shockingly accurate economic confidence and cycle models developed by Martin Armstrong. For those of you who have not heard of him, Armstrong is the former chairman of the Printion Economics Institute Ltd who was imprisoned because of securities fraud and contempt of the court.

For my KhronoStock PRO subscribers, I provided a somewhat detailed analysis of Armstrong’s 8.6 Years Economic Confidence Model and how cycles are computed. In addition, I mapped out the situation with the US stock market in the near future based on his cycles.

For here within StockTock, I would like to point out the truly historical moment that we are living in right now, a moment when the 8.6 year economic confidence peak arrived during late February of 2007 and the 37.33 year financial crisis reached in 2008 “converged”. I calculated these cylces back historically and such convergence is rare. The last close one was the 8.6 year economic confience peak in 1929 and the financial crisis towards the late 1933. However, we all know that the stock market actually bottomed during the summer of 1932. Thus, the current economic and financial situation that we are facing right now is a different animal. The figure below is from Armstrong’s 77-page book “It’s Just Time” that he wrote while in prison.



As we can see, we are currently in the midst of this steep economic decline that won’t bottom until sometimes in June of 2011.

The views from many economists today have been consistently wrong because their view of historical data is limited to no more than 40 years. Without understanding cycles and making statement such as “the current recession is over due to the initial jobless claims data (the earliest data goes back to 1964)” or “consumer sentiment hit rock bottom because the last time it reached 50s was in the 1980s” are just igorant and will continue to be unreliable.

http://www.khronostock.com/

dividend_growth

thisnoname

Get ready for the 2071 rally!!!

quickcow

3# thisnoname


2071 is top.  Rally starts from 2011.

lwjnbtx

imagine someone hold long till 2071~~

Amy999

小亥

Here is the link Martin Armstrong: It's Just Time.http://www.scribd.com/doc/881308 ... 8-Its-Just-Time-77p

For those who have never heard of him, Armstrongis possibly the most knowledgeable man on the planet regarding thesubject of cycles as they apply to social behaviour. He developed acomplex forecasting model - based on fractal natural cycles (cycleswithin cycles within cycles) - which was so accurate according toArmstrong that it came to the attention of the CIA who sought toacquire ownership of and control over it. As Armstrong tells it, whenhe turned the CIA down they contrived to ensure that he was sidelinedand they took his computer anyway, which led to his source codeself-destructing when it was tampered with.
The article was written whilst Armstrong was injail. In it, he claims that he was incarcerated without due process ofthe law for a period of 7 years - at the whim of the presiding judge -pursuant to an alleged crime of market manipulation (conspiracy tocommit fraud) which, if he had been tried and found guilty would havecarried a maximum 5 year sentence. Effectively, in his words, he is "serving a 12 year sentence for a pretended offense that by law cannot justify more than five years when guilty" (At page 64)



Happy Reading

thisnoname

Wasn't he already wrong by calling a top on March 2009?

Lionking

too big range. You have to bet your whole life to prove it. I think it's just FYI only.