Now vs. 1938(zz)

oldfairy

Now vs. 1938
Over the last several weeks, there have been numerous comparisons made between today's market and 1938.  As shown below, an overlay of the current S&P 500 over the period of 1936 - 1938 shows two similar patterns in both the decline from the peak and the advances off the lows.  With that in mind, we looked to see how the S&P 500 would have to perform going forward in order to keep the relationship going.  

As shown below, at its peak last week, the S&P 500 rallied 38.2% from the March lows.  In 1938, the S&P gained 50.5% in the four months following its low.  If the S&P 500 were to have a similar rally off of its lows today, it would top out at 1,018.  While breaking 1,000 on the S&P 500 seems remarkable given where we were in March, it is still nearly 200 points lower than where the index was trading before the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy.

acura

thanks

coexist

why compare with 38?

sandkisk

I review all the major recessions in the last 100 years. Each time is, indeed, very different. Making this kind of comparison makes very little sense to invest.

如果一个方法不能保证全心地投下去，回报一定很低。

Simpletrader

4# hfdcai2000


Same question here.

dara

it is just purely wishful thinking.

Why compare to 1932? It is completely different world now.

1932 has Internet?

I believe SPy worths more than 760 forever. No others, today the money outside is at least doubled than 1997.  Your salary is doubled, your house price is doubled(if you bought in 1997), Everything is doubled.

oldfairy

I do not know either. Maybe they used some software, i.e. pattern explorer and get the result (one assumption: history always repeat)

Just share some information I read and let you decide by yourself.

As for inflation (dara's question), I only remember (not sure) that Murphy once said something like no need to consider inflation. yyber should know whethe Murphy said so or not.

Billyboy

Ding

dividend_growth

大家不用老比来比去的，这次熊市肯定有它独特的走法。

bloodyliu

看不明白