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楼主 |
发表于 2009-5-13 09:16 AM
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On the open, the S&P 500 looks like it's on its way to the largest negative gap since April 20th. That wasn't a good day to look for a rebound, as the tracking fund (SPY) went on to lose another 2.5% from open to close.
In fact, 7 out of the last 8 times SPY has gapped open -1.5% or more at the open, it lost even more ground during regular trading hours, averaging -1.2% from open to close. As usual, a pretty good rule of thumb is that a lower intraday low after the first hour of trading typically results in continued weakness into the close.
There's an additional wrinkle this time, though, in that our short-term STEM.MR Model is still in oversold territory. There have only been three times we've seen the model oversold, and then a gap of -1.5% or more in the S&P. Those were 01/22/08, 10/08/08 and 10/10/08.
Each of those three led to selling panics during the first half-hour, and rebounds during the day. But each also occurred after the S&P had sold off hard leading into the gap - this time we're just coming off a multi-month high. |
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发表于 2009-5-13 09:11 AM
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发表于 2009-5-13 09:11 AM
发表于 2009-5-13 09:39 AM