被套的熊熊们，再等120点吧

loudway

Imagine the unimaginable, GS 和O8通力合作之下，将市场连抬8周，居然把900变成了floor，真是令人难以置信，我想能猜到这个结果的，只有那个偷偷买高盛股票的NY Fed Chairman ：）

看看S&P的volume， 从666一路抄上来到900，一直是trader 的 market，真正赚到钱的只有GS们和站对队的traders们。 那些从750烧上来的HF和股神们，sideline观战的，等着VIX上90抄底的散户和MF manager们 （我自己的401K一直是cash等着600抄底，估计得一直cash下去了），是这次rally最大的loser.

今天TA上不算什么(of course overbought again)，FA上确是非常Critical的一天。 Everyone was expecting market to go down big after the stress test(sell on news),  but market end up higher, again. 为什么? 因为从今天起，sentiment shift了, short sellers have no more short term excuse to short,  散户和MF manager 也信以为真，认定从此以后，Financial的 uncertainty 不再有，如果他们再不long, they will miss the rally of century. 从今天S&P930起, GS正式交棒，把托市的重任转到散户和mf 的手中。 GS溜了，但你如果认为市场就此就到顶了，可以开烧了，那就又错了， MM好不容易用自己的钱拖到这个点位，决不会立马砸盘的，市场还是要上行，直到圈近足够的dumb money，发够新股了吧（那时，也许银行却又真的没问题了？）。

被套的熊熊们，再等120点吧

Maylin

Agree!

Jimmylee

I can't agree more!

shyla

MM好不容易用自己的钱拖到这个点位，决不会立马砸盘的，市场还是要上行，直到圈近足够的dumb money，发够新股了吧（那时，也许银行却又真的没问题了？）。

同意，现在一砸，前面都白做了，只有快拉慢回，让散户慢慢接手。

bagua2009

不灌白不灌，灌了也白灌,周末灌水。。。。

小亥

来，高手讲讲这120点是怎马算出来的

organometals

No way, maybe another 20-30 points maximum. Should be piggy next week with one MAD to finally prop market to 200MA. Reversal starts after OE.

tomorrow

好帖. 但是短线不是没有机会的. 如果还是熊市(不知道还有几个人同意), 那跌起来还是很吓人的. 我想trader们可能已经溜走了. 就算到了新的牛市, 那也要回调才能涨高呀. 只不过不创新低罢了.

nasd

8# tomorrow

完全同意。

sexydaytrader

Good post, I am one of them that got trapped.

I believe some of the buying came from the short cover, that's why there has been so many gap up opens.

Shorts were forced to cover at higher price.

loudway

来，高手讲讲这120点是怎马算出来的
小亥 发表于 2009-5-8 22:19

拿俩色子拽出来的。6+6=12。胡同的熊太多，如果老老实实地说可能还有6，70点，他们还且耗呢，得吓唬吓唬熊熊，早割肉早升天，长痛不如短痛

rooky

i don't think today's TA is meaningful. the whole day i can not short FAS, BAC, WFC, JPM. seems like they dont let you short sell any financial stocks. it's different than nobody want to short, but they can't.

小亥

俺以为你是按DOW theory，奔那40%的跌幅去的。

Persistance

Who will buy at SPX 1000,  MMs or small traders?  Those buyers had been wiped out half an year ago.

gege88

i don't think there will be a lot Sanhu buyers from now on. Instead, more shorters may join?

vinna

12# rooky


actually there are extremely large short positions on these names

风清扬

loudway

i don't think there will be a lot Sanhu buyers from now on. Instead, more shorters may join?
gege88 发表于 2009-5-9 04:10

Most short sellers shorted around 870 level (which was THE key resistance), should cut loss by now if they are disciplined  traders. the main contributor from now now are the 401K-er and "long term" investors who were sideline from last Nov. Actually more and more sahu will switch from short term swing to long term, if they believe the fundemantal has changed.

To those who caught the big rally from bottom up, it was a 30% gain for them, they think about locking in profit, to those who "踩空“，they think it is still dirt cheap level, and we still have 80% up to go :).

fisheatme

good point

lwjnbtx

When everyone is thinking that market is still going up, the we will see a top (be it intermediate term or not). Just like when SPX was at 666, most of us were thinking there would be more down...