NYADV top/bottom watch watch

Lynxx · 发表于 2009-5-5 12:22 AM

The idea was borrowed from Cobra's CPCE top watch.

Theory:
1. When an uptrend starts to slow down, it's NYADV tends to fluctuate in a smaller and smaller range. It's local maxima form a series of lower highs, on which a downward trendline can be drawn.
2. As the market starts the topping process, NYADV will shoot up again to pass the trendline upward. This should mark the beginning of topping.
3. Once the top is reached, market starts to go down, NYADV will drop sharply to pass the trendline again. This time is downward. And it should mark the end of topping.
4. Since NYADV itself is too noisy, I choose to use EMA5 as the gauge.

Additional comments:
1. Sometimes if the final spike didn't show up then there is no warning of the beginning of topping. But since NYADV will certainly drop sharply, a trend line connecting a series higher troughs may be drawn to confirm the top (the end of topping).
2. It should work similarly for bottom watch. But it looks like bottom watch does not have the same edge as top watch. And I am lazy now. May take some time to figure it out later. Will update then.

javamood · 发表于 2009-5-5 12:45 AM

hao tu!

maple888 · 发表于 2009-5-5 12:46 AM

u11 · 发表于 2009-5-5 12:58 AM

dingggggggggggg

sinnet · 发表于 2009-5-5 01:04 AM

本帖最后由 sinnet 于 2009-5-5 02:13 编辑

there are other possible trendlines that can be drawn in your chart (e.g. around May-June 2008, Sept-Oct, 2008 and Jan-Feb, 2009) which results in the bottom formation instead of top formation.

when we do back-testing, since we already had the conclusion and tried to find evidence to support those conclusions, we tend to ignore those evidence that didn't support the assumption.

Even Cobra lao da had to redraw his 2.8.0 treadline after things didn't work out the way he first predicted.

lake3peat · 发表于 2009-5-5 01:20 AM

Many thanks for sharing!

buctusa · 发表于 2009-5-5 02:32 AM

Thank you for your great chart...............

But i am worried that TA indicators do not work in current market which is highly manipulated by Goverment!

jilier · 发表于 2009-5-5 07:35 AM

Good one!

demand · 发表于 2009-5-5 07:47 AM

fu2008 · 发表于 2009-5-5 08:08 AM

Good observation!

Cobra · 发表于 2009-5-5 08:51 AM

Lynxx · 发表于 2009-5-5 04:34 PM

5# sinnet
Thanks for the suggestions. I saw those lines. I am just too lazy to draw all the lines possible.

Maylin · 发表于 2009-5-5 04:40 PM

purety · 发表于 2009-5-5 04:43 PM

good observation

raise3 · 发表于 2009-5-5 05:57 PM

Nice thinking

xiaoxiaozhang · 发表于 2009-5-5 05:58 PM

QuickHand · 发表于 2009-5-5 06:10 PM

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[讨论] NYADV top/bottom watch watch