坏数据引起市场波动，但市场最终还是认为没看懂

老灯

因为没看懂，能能，午午都不敢乱动。

周五经济数据面，美国9月季调后非农就业人口录得增加19.4万人，不及市场预期的50万，续创1月以来最小增幅。
报告还将8月非农就业数据从上次公布的增加23.5万上修至增加36.6万；美国9月失业率较前值下跌0.4个百分点至4.80%，也大幅低于预期的5.10%。

而周三的小非农数据，和今天的NR数据差向不一致。所以市场今天多数时间都是围绕着.786处振荡。



至于最后一小时的抛售（胆小鬼怕周末），可以忽略不计。当然我有BIAS。



午午的角还没长出来， 对能能还不构成威胁。因为Q3的季报就要来临，可以说本季季报是检验供应链问题对企业收益影响的深度标杆。
虽然疫情形势已有明显好转，债务危机也被缓解，但是供应链问题对经济恢复的不确定性，以及造成的通胀效应，一直是华尔街能能们的韭菜收割机。

技术上无论日线和周线都收在20码以上。

SPY日线图



SPY周线图



10月13日起，金融板块开始季报。由于50%的公司都已经抹去了今年的大部分涨幅，先抑后仰？希望Q3的报告能带来意外的惊喜。
个人认为，银行和大科技蓝筹，受供应链问题影响较小，依旧靓丽。而半导体，工业和消费板块，会受到影响。油气板块已经PRICE IN了
指数仍然有机会在火鸡节前后到达新高。

预测为辅，操作为主。仓位控制才是王道。

祝牛牛，午午，土土，干干好运！

TNA

qzhou3

祝牛牛，午午，土土，干干, +倍 好运！

dsp

牛牛，午午，土土，干干 一定会打败 熊熊，能能，月月，匕匕

源济

谢谢分享，周末愉快！

Bencat

希望Q3的报告能带来意外的惊喜。

hifive

谢谢分享！

tcm328pan

恐慌小猪

老灯兄还是要做好牛牛长期抗战的准备。

老灯

恐慌小猪 发表于 2021-10-10 08:55 AM
老灯兄还是要做好牛牛长期抗战的准备。

我赌火鸡节前新高。

老灯

老灯

大模样走出LL HL HH形态

老灯

老灯 发表于 2021-10-13 08:36 AM
大模样走出LL HL HH形态

老灯

Stock futures headed toward a higher open Thursday morning after a slew of earnings results from the big banks topped expectations.

The S&P 500 was on track for a second straight session of gains. Nasdaq futures outperformed, adding to gains as Treasury yields fell further. The benchmark 10-year yield pulled back further to come in below 1.53% after topping 1.62% just earlier this week.

Bank earnings continued on Thursday with companies including Bank of America (BAC), Wells Fargo (WFC) and Morgan Stanley (MS) posting quarterly results before the opening bell. Bank of America's profits soared by 58% over last year to $7.7 billion, with this sum boosted by the release of $1.1 billion in credit reserves that had been previously set aside to protect against potential customer defaults. Wells Fargo's results saw a similar boost from reserve releases, as well as from increased investment banking revenue and consumer credit card-related sales. And Morgan Stanley posted estimates-topping revenue in both its fixed income and equities trading units, with the bank seeing a pick-up in business as market activity related elevated during the quarter.

As earnings season rolls on in the coming weeks, investor focus will be fixed on companies' commentary around prices increases, supply chain disruptions and labor challenges. All of these factors have been seen as contributing to an earnings slowdown compared to the second quarter. However, how long-lasting these challenges prove to be, and which companies will ultimately be hit the hardest by these factors, has been a central question for investors.

老灯

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM), the world's largest chip foundry, on Thursday beat expectations for third-quarter earnings. It also guided higher for the current period. TSM stock rose in early trading on the news.

X
Taiwan Semi earned $1.08 per U.S. share in the September quarter, up 17% from the year-earlier period. Analysts expected earnings of $1.04 a share, according to FactSet. The company's sales increased 23% to $14.88 billion.

For the fourth quarter, Taiwan Semi forecast revenue of $15.4 billion to $15.7 billion. The midpoint of $15.55 billion topped Wall Street's consensus estimate of $15.43 billion, according to FactSet. Its sales in the year-earlier period were $12.93 billion.

Taiwan Semi expects a gross profit margin of 51% to 53% in the fourth quarter. Its gross margin in the third quarter was 51.3%, an improvement from 50% in the second quarter.

老灯

市场如期反弹

hifive

厉害！

老灯

老灯 发表于 2021-10-13 07:51 PM

老灯

周四早间，八家标普500指数成分股公司公布了财报，其盈利表现全部超出市场此前的预期。其中，美国银行股价大涨4.5%，摩根士丹利涨2.5%. Walgreens股价则飙升了7.4%，公司财报远超预期，同时还宣布将投资52亿元成为医疗保健公司VillageMD的最大股东。

瑞银财富管理首席投资官Mark Haefele周四表示，“到目前为止，美国大公司在劳动力成本上升的情况下仍然创造了更高的利润，这是因为公司销售增长强劲。三季度财报预计将延续这个趋势。”

另外，下滑的美债收益率也提振了科技股的表现。周四公布的生产者价格指数（PPI）增长小于经济学家的预期，这缓和了部分通胀担忧，十年期美债收益率周四下滑至1.51%. Alphabet、微软、苹果、Facebook等高成长科技股涨幅均超1%.

提振美股的还包括周四公布的上周首次申请失业救济人数自疫情爆发以来首次下滑至30万以下。分析师认为，这一就业市场的最新信号令人鼓舞。

老灯