ES perspective

enrontyco

Long term: The ES has been in a long-term bear market since 1428. That sell signal was generated on 5/20/08. Net change to date is –583 points (-40.82 %). Current intratrend stop/reversal line is at 919.
Intermediate: The trend turned up at 806 on April 1, 2009. Net change is +39.50 (+4.90 %). Intratrend stop/reversal line is presently at 824.
Short-term: ST trend turned bullish at 742 on March 12, 2009. Net change is +104 (+13.97 %). Intratrend stop/reversal line is at 837.

My assessment is that the ES is in an intermediate term bear market rally within the context of a long-term bear market. So long as price stays north of 837 (short-term stop/reversal line) and 824 (intermediate stop/reversal line) then the rally remains intact.
If the bears are able to push it below those ST and IT stop/reversal lines—then the bias switches back to fully bearish. Pretty simple.
Different folks trade in different timeframes, so essentially some bears are ‘right’ and some bulls are ‘right’ depending upon perspective. In reality, the only indicator that is ever 100% accurate--is your account balance. If it is up—then you are ‘right’ on that particular trade. If the position is at a loss, then you are wrong…simple as that.
Current dominant trading trend is the ST and the upside target of 868 has been visited twice recently and has pulled back. That target represents resistance formed by four price rejections since January of 2009 in the same area. On the other side of that line is undoubtedly a huge cache of bear stops. Odds are that many of those who are short here and elsewhere currently have their stops located near the recent highs. So, the game here could be for the goons to continue fishing these waters to lure in as many bears as possible before eventually making a fast run up and through that resistance to open a new trading range > 873. If that is so, then once the buy stops are harvested, then and only then will we get an idea of the next trending direction. Goons bought the junk at the March lows and will need to offload that at some point. What better place to sell their wares than the buying frenzy sure to occur > 873 where bears will be forced to cover buy and bulls will be buying the trading range breakout. If I were a goon—that’s what I would do.
ES pulled back to the ideal buy zone (837 – 844) overnight and then bounced a little. Ideal buy zone for me is when the gain/risk ratio is greater than 3:1 on an entry (ES upside target = 868).
If the bears can take out the stop/reversal lines mentioned above, then I’ll be stopped with a profit and will switch sides and reformulate my thesis.
Long from 809 with IT stops currently at 837. Next upside target is stops > 873.
…my .02