Basic FA, do you think what he said make sense?

colderdown

俺一直想写一篇长文，叫“美国经济前景一片光明！”对应俺在2001年在美国“世界日报”发表的那篇2整版的长文“美国经济 问题何在？”但实在太忙，没工夫写。现在只把一个关于美股的基本思路写在这里吧。
没有任何一个大的行情是没有FA作为基础的。但美国经济基本面现在这么糟糕，看牛？凭什么呀？俺时间不多，所以今天只是反过来写，说说“看熊，凭什么呀？”等有时间，再正面写。
俺曾有篇文章，直言“熊派的逻辑链条断了”，链接在这里：
http://blog.wenxuecity.com/blogv ... mp;postID=5794#mark
其中的关键点就是：如果熊派们希望他们的预测实现，其中的必要条件就是美元贬值。因为只要Interests Derivatives不出问题，CDS的问题会被慢慢修复。只要出现这种情况，目前的TARP3就足够将道指支撑在8000+，没有问题的。可是利率衍生品崩盘的必要前提就是美元贬值，美元不贬值，利率衍生品就安啦，熊派的逻辑链条就断啦。可熊派们现在的问题是，美国政府大肆发债发钞后，美元不仅没有贬值，还不断升值！特别是在本周一，道指大跌，美元却狂涨，见下图：
http://picasaweb.google.com/100h ... 5325957333167411394
熊派们目前对美元升值的看法都是认为是“短期因素”，那不过是敷衍搪塞。俺对美元长期看涨，对油价长期看跌(短期由于“布什因素”还在起作用，不会立即急跌)。所以做美元期货的朋友们，看涨美元啦。别听熊派们对美元的瞎吵吵，美元美股齐涨，只是时间问题。现在美元上涨，不是像他们所说是“避险”原因，而是“趋利”原因，就是看涨美股，像克林顿任内那样。至于什么是新的增长点，到时候再说。
实际上俺在上面已经说到了，您自己琢磨吧。
从以上观点出发，俺特看重花旗(C)分析师上周二看跌欧元的消息，并在文学城的“投资理财”论坛有上帖“墙倒众人推啊，花旗出手空欧元了！俺的预测今年底欧元跌破$1.20! ”。花旗(C)空欧元，欧元能不跌？链接在这里：
http://web.wenxuecity.com/BBSView.php?SubID=tzlc&MsgID=158163
看到美元指数在无情地上涨，熊派们作何感想呢？还坚持只是“短期因素”？
本文不构成任何买卖股票之建议。
祝您发财！

xiaobailong

好像C比EUR跌得厉害多了。

多吉

我知道您是哪个了。久仰，久仰!

colderdown

3# 多吉

Maybe not. I don't write too much FA stuff on BBS. But misleading paper like this will cause my Chinese XDJM a lot of money. This guy use a lot of big words and appears he knew some. But, he did not mention two key words about any market, supply and demand. I hope everyone really dig deep to find out when this bear market started and what's the real cause about it, then, you will know what you shall do. BTW, I am not a bear or bull this yr, I am a pig.

xiaobailong

同猪同猪

小亥

your identity has conflicts of interests by publicizing your idea. jm2c.

colderdown

6# 小亥


Cold is good for people, keep our heads clear. But if it is too cold, that another story. All I am saying is that there is too may bullish call now. I don't say market will crash soon, but let's be real. Any bubble can not form without hysterical mass participation. In another words, it's a very low possibility to have a bubble right after a previous super bubble just bursted, since there is no enough time for the mass to recuperate psychologically. In the short term, that's the reason MM need this pull back too. Since the mass was not in this rally at all (too fast). This is just a teaser. MM need mass to join this push, so they can unload their stuff. If their unload here, I doubt they think they got "fair"price. So, it will be a pig market for a while. But to test 666, very slim chance.

老船

Thanks!

revolver

俺一直想写一篇长文，叫“美国经济前景一片dark"!

但实在太忙，没工夫写。

Now there are so many fake FA coming out and misleading HTers, seems I better publish it this weekend.

nasa1100

range!

colderdown

9# revolver

give him a bit credit, at least US$ is strong and will be stronger, he got that right.

小亥

It's always good to know both sides' story. Dollar cannot be always strong. It's against the old trick they played for so many years. Right now, it has its political intention behind it. If you have ever read this, http://www.dallasfed.org/research/indepth/2003/id0304.pdf, you know FED has very few more tricks to play. Can FED keep buying long term treasury and keep $ strong? I doubt it.

Cold is good for people, keep our heads clear. But if it is too cold, that another story. All I am saying is that there is too may bullish call now. I don't say market will crash soon,  ...
colderdown 发表于 2009-4-23 17:34

coexist

美元上涨对企业是毒药

sunrise

bear

revolver

11# colderdown

He didn't get right. USD strong is a fact, and he uses this to get the conclusion that US economy is going to be all right, which is completely rubbish logic.