Market is maturing for a real pullback. Why?

n748

First, I was a strong bear in the past several weeks. If I were the same myself as I were a week ago, I would short with no hasitation at the end of today. However, I'm not so sure and did not take any action. Why, just too many people are buying on dip, and MM is strongly supporting this behavior so far.

I'm even wondering whether I should buy some SDS right now in AH, however, with earnings from AAPL,EBAY etc beating consensus estimates, I'm afraid of MM may push it up further tomorrow to trap the bears who baught their position at the close today.

That's exactly what MM want to see before the decisive pullback move, especially if it's not just a pullback, they need people to buy whatever they sell.

With more and more bears trapped into the status I'm in right now, MM will start to short the market soon.

Secondly, today's move and its close is unique since the rally started in early March. Consider that it's obivious that the uptread is weakening in the past two weeks, with today's rally effort faded, especially its close at low of the day. It's hard to imagine market is able to negatate the drop the day before yesterday. Which implies, a down trend is almost confirmed in place.

It's quite obivious to me I should add some short position right now. But as I said, I dare not to do it.

With good earnings from AAPL, EBAY (tech is very strong these days), perhaps there is something left for the bulls. So not yet, bears, be patient for another day or two.

But I still stongly believe this will be the first down week since the rally started, which means either tomorrow, or Friday, we may see a big down day.

For bears, better to see small up and down tomorrow to release any energy left for the bulls, then followed with a decisive down trend move on Friday to end the week.

Let's see what's going to happen. I'm afraid MM may not give me time to add short position ( I mean it will be too late when I have made up my mind).

I'm posting it to share my sentiment so that you can use it as an indicator when you make your judgement of market status.

xiaohunhun

past few pullback last at least two day...

links4rank

今天反弹到了.618就再也上不去了。明天要不突破该位确认下跌

qiangge

farshine

老船

Thanks.

NingCaiChen

thanks

flying_bird

thanks.

sniffer

1# n748
It looks like market in stress test-- the muscles get tightened, the stomach gets knotted up. The breathing pattern also gets changed faster than usual.
Do you want to be in the same state--stress? No, Calm down . When you get greedy to jump into market, count to ten -- Thinking that "Market is maturing for a real pullback". Good Article. Thanks

ivymay99

thanks

moneymaker

前怕狼，后怕虎。
该出手时就出手。

awang

ding

icc

Thanks!

gidar

n748

A simple update of my sentiment before I go to bed.

With today's close, many Laoda pointed out it's good for bulls. I take it positively as a bear (even though I don't have short position). As I said yesterday, actually it's good for bears to have an up day today. It closed on high of the day, however, the gain is limited, especially we saw lower high and lower low today comparing to yesterday. All those are positive signs for bears. therefore, while many may be afraid of a gap up tomorrow., I take it as the last release of the bull's energy before it falls back to lower lows. I bet it's going to be tomorrow.

We may see a gap down tomorrow, even though MSFT went up in AH.

I may change my mind if market shows its strength by having new high, however, my trading will be bear-biased until it happens.

FYI, I baught FAZ twice today, made some small money for weekend eat out.

n748

The latest update of my sentiment is at:
http://blog.hutong9.com/space.ph ... do=blog&id=9782

First time to write something in blog. Excited to see whether it works.